March 1 (Bloomberg) -- With Dmitry Medvedev the runaway favorite in Russia's presidential election tomorrow, the focus will be on whether he'll do better than Vladimir Putin did when he was reelected by a landslide in 2004.

``They'll be looking for 70 percent of the vote on a turnout of 70 percent'' to establish Medvedev's credibility and legitimacy, said Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib Financial Corp.

President Putin won a second term four years ago with 71.3 percent of the vote -- more than the winner's haul in Russia's other two post-Soviet presidential elections, Boris Yeltsin's in 1996 and Putin's in 2000. Turnout in 2004 was 64.4 percent.

Putin selected Medvedev, 42, on Dec. 10 to succeed him, while promising to retain his own political influence. A week later, the president agreed to serve as Medvedev's prime minister, setting the stage for a dual leadership that's unprecedented in modern Russian history.

The Kremlin and the state media machinery have thrown their weight behind Medvedev, a first deputy prime minister, giving him blanket coverage. Russian election law bans publication of opinion poll data in the days before the vote. Medvedev was well ahead in the latest published surveys.

Medvedev's Opponents

``It's a difficult job to forecast the outcome of the election, of course, but I'd put my bet on Medvedev winning,'' Russian billionaire Alexander Lebedev said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

The other three candidates -- Communist Gennady Zyuganov; the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia's Vladimir Zhirinovsky, a pro-Putin politician who advocates Russian supremacy; and Andrei Bogdanov, a former employee of Putin's United Russia party -- have received minimal press attention.

Putin, 55, urged Russians to vote in a televised address to the nation yesterday, saying the ``effective and assured'' performance of his successor depends on receiving a popular mandate.

About 300 international observers are accredited for the election, according to Central Election Commission Chairman Vladimir Churov. This group, including a 25-strong delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, has the task of monitoring voting at Russia's 92,000 polling stations.

OSCE Boycott

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's election-monitoring arm said in a statement on Feb. 7 that it wouldn't send monitors, citing ``severe restrictions'' on the composition and duration of its mission set by Russian authorities.

About 300,000 Russian law enforcement officers and 150,000 Interior Ministry special forces troops will be deployed on election day, Alexander Chekalin, a first deputy interior minister, said in an interview with the government's Rossiiskaya Gazeta on Feb. 27.

Polls will be open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time in each of Russia's 11 time zones. Voting will start in Chukotka, about 60 miles from Alaska across the Bering Strait. Exit polls will be released at 9 p.m. Moscow time tomorrow, after polls close in Russia's most westerly district, Kaliningrad, one hour behind the capital.

Churov plans to announce preliminary election results at 10 a.m. on March 3. Official results will be published on March 7.

`Huge Advantage'

``The big issue is, after the election, what happens?'' Thomas Pickering, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, said on Bloomberg Television on Feb. 28.

The defense, intelligence and foreign affairs ministries have always reported directly to the president, he said. ``Will they report to the new president, Mr. Medvedev, or will they somehow migrate to report to the new prime minister?''

Medvedev barely bothered to campaign. He traveled widely across Russia, visiting factories, old people's homes, naval bases and other institutions on trips his office said were related to his government duties, not the campaign. The national television stations regularly featured his activities in prime time news programs.

Ivan Melnikov, Zyuganov's campaign manager and first deputy chairman of the Communist Party's Central Committee, said yesterday that this tactic gave Medvedev a ``huge, incommensurable advantage'' in television airtime over the other candidates.

Medvedev also refused to take part in televised debates with the other candidates.

No Debate

``I respect my opponents, but I don't overestimate them,'' he said in an interview published on his Web site. ``I don't need to win a bunch of verbal battles with those who have never been at the helm of state machines, whose programs are outdated and obviously have no chance of being implemented.''

Melnikov said Medvedev's refusal to debate was part of an overall campaign strategy aimed at preventing voters from comparing his platform to those of his opponents.

``The aim of this tactic was to lead the public to believe that no equivalent course exists, even in theory,'' Melnikov said in comments posted on the Communist Party's Web site.

Two prominent opposition figures, former world chess champion Garry Kasparov and Putin's former prime minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, attempted to run but weren't registered as candidates.

The presidential election follows a parliamentary vote on Dec. 2, in which Putin's United Russia party won 64 percent of the vote on a turnout of 63 percent.

`Stability' and `Continuity'

Medvedev has said ``stability'' and ``continuity'' will be the priorities of his presidency as he seeks to build on the unbroken years of economic growth under Putin.

``If I'm entrusted with running the country, I will of course be simply obliged to follow the course that has proven its effectiveness over the last eight years, President Putin's course,'' Medvedev told supporters in Nizhny Novgorod on Feb. 27 in comments broadcast on state television.

He has made it clear that he will challenge the West to defend Russia's interests. Under Medvedev, Russia is likely to continue opposing U.S. plans to deploy elements of a missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland; bids by former Soviet republics Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO; and Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia, which the U.S. and some European countries support.

``The overall thrust of foreign policy won't change,'' said Fyodor Lukyanov, an analyst at the Moscow-based Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. He ``will defend Russia's interests just as firmly'' as Putin.

Medvedev has yet to establish a high profile with U.S. leaders.

``I don't know much about Medvedev,'' President George W. Bush told reporters in Washington on Feb. 28. Asked to name Putin's successor during a debate in Cleveland, Ohio, on Feb. 26, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton replied: ``Med... Medevedevo... Whatever.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Sebastian Alison in Moscow at Salison1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 1, 2008 09:52 EST