Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Taiwan's 17 million voters go to the polls tomorrow for the first of two elections this quarter that could end eight years of gridlock and deepen the island's economic ties with China.

The opposition Kuomintang, which favors closer mainland links, aims to retain control of parliament as a springboard to winning the presidency in March from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party.

``The legislative vote is an important marker for the presidential election, testing the mood of the electorate and the strength of the two major parties,'' said Michael Boyden, managing director of Taiwan Asia Strategy Consulting in Taipei.

Taiwan's economy has lagged behind China's since outgoing President Chen Shui-bian ended 51 years of KMT rule of the island in 2000. Ma Ying-jeou, the opposition's presidential candidate, has pledged to raise growth and cut unemployment by easing trade and investment restrictions with the mainland.

Ma's KMT has kept control of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan since losing the presidency, and the division of power between the two parties has resulted in delays in implementing government policies from financial-sector consolidation to defense purchases.

Analysts predict the opposition will win as much as two- thirds of the 113-seat parliament.

``The KMT is likely to get a landslide victory,'' said Philip Yang, professor of political science at National Taiwan University in Taipei. ``People are tired of the government's repeated corruption cases and the underperforming economy.''

Leading Polls

Ma, 57, also leads in opinion polls over the DPP's presidential candidate, Frank Hsieh, 61. The presidential election is scheduled for March 22.

The DPP has criticized the opposition's blocking of its legislation and warned that Taiwan's democratic system and autonomy is at risk if the KMT wins.

``If the KMT takes an absolute majority in the elections, Taiwan's future will only have the option of `unification' with China,'' Chen said Jan. 7. ``You must vote for Taiwan, vote for democracy and vote for justice,'' he said.

Chen, 56, who narrowly won the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, has said that Taiwan's investments in China are already too high and that the island's sovereignty is as important as its economy.

He wants a referendum on joining the United Nations to be held with the March 22 presidential election, a move the U.S. calls provocative and that China, which considers Taiwan part of its territory, warns it won't tolerate.

China's Threat

While China has offered talks with any Taiwanese party that rejects independence, it has threatened to invade the island 90 miles off its coast if a formal split is attempted.

``Most Taiwanese want better ties with China, and Saturday's vote, if the KMT takes more seats as expected, could indicate a rejection of confrontational policies,'' said Yang Tai-shuenn, a political professor at the Chinese Culture University in Taipei.

Voters tomorrow will also decide on two referenda: whether the KMT should give back assets gained in the more than five decades it governed Taiwan, and an opposition-proposed vote on wiping out official corruption.

The campaign has been marked by corruption charges and trials affecting both parties. Chen's wife, Wu Shu-chen, is on trial for embezzlement, forgery and misuse of funds, and prosecutors said they have enough evidence to charge the president on similar grounds if not for his presidential immunity. Both have denied the charges.

Family Problems

Chen's son-in-law, Chao Chien-ming, is on trial for insider trading after the Supreme Court last month revoked a conviction and asked the High Court to reconsider the case.

``President Chen has vowed to strive for Taiwan's economy, but in fact he has been striving only for his family's economy,'' Ma told supporters at a rally in southern Taiwan on Jan. 6.

Ma himself also faces corruption charges, with prosecutors on Jan. 9 appealing his Dec. 28 acquittal on charges he misused government funds while mayor of Taipei.

Chen plans to leave Taiwan for a visit to Guatemala on Jan. 13, the day after the vote. The DPP's Hsieh, who himself has pledged to improve business ties with China if elected president, has not played a big role in the legislative campaign.

To contact the reporters on this story: James Peng in Taipei at jpeng7@bloomberg.net; Tim Culpan in Taipei at tculpan1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 10, 2008 19:33 EST