Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp., the biggest automakers in the U.S., said fourth-quarter sales may rise after a letdown from the “cash-for-clunkers” rebates dragged the industry to its second-worst month of 2009.

September U.S. sales fell 23 percent as the incentive program left dealers’ inventory depleted. With the government cash boosting demand in July and August, third-quarter sales ran at an annualized pace of 11.5 million cars and trucks, the strongest in a year.

“We’ve reached the crossroads where the recovery meets the downward slide from last year,” said Jeff Schuster, a Detroit- based analyst at researcher J.D. Power & Associates. “We’re on the upside now, but it will be a fairly slow ascent.”

Easier fourth-quarter comparisons with 2008 and a stabilizing U.S. economy helped drive today’s outlook for improvement at GM and Toyota. Last month’s sales ran at an annualized rate of 9.22 million units, compared with the average estimate of 9.3 million among 8 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Clunkers rebates of as much as $4,500 produced almost 700,000 sales, and now that the incentives are gone the new-auto market is returning to levels that match underlying monthly demand, said Mike DiGiovanni, Detroit-based GM’s executive director of global marketing and industry analysis.

“This is clearly behind us,” DiGiovanni said.

Fourth-Quarter Outlook

Fourth-quarter U.S. sales probably will run at about the same annualized rate as a year earlier, or 10.5 million units, Schuster said. The pace for the first and second quarters was about 9.6 million light vehicles.

Toyota expects this quarter’s rate to be in the “high 10s,” Bob Carter, vice president of U.S. sales for the Toyota City, Japan-based automaker, said in a conference call today.

“As we get into the fourth quarter we see it getting into the 11s,” Carter said. The company estimated that full-year sales would be 10.4 million units.

The lowest pace this year was 9.11 million, in February. The annual rate is important to the industry because manufacturers, suppliers and dealers use it to compare monthly totals by taking into account seasonal buying patterns. Last year’s sales were 13.2 million, after averaging 16.8 million this decade through 2007.

‘Slow Going’

Ford also expects auto sales in the fourth quarter to run ahead of the annualized pace of 10.5 million units a year earlier, said George Pipas, the sales analyst for the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker. “But I think it’s going to be pretty slow going.”

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in September projected the economy will expand at an average 2.6 percent pace in the second half. Consumer confidence also reached its highest level since January 2008 in the University of Michigan-Reuters index.

GM’s September deliveries tumbled 45 percent, while Toyota dropped 13 percent, both worse than analysts had estimated. Ford slid 5.1 percent, and Auburn Hills, Michigan-based Chrysler Group LLC plunged 42 percent.

Honda Motor Co. posted a 20 percent decline, and Nissan Motor Co., which like Honda is based in Tokyo, said sales fell 7.1 percent.

Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s largest automaker, bucked the industry slide with a 27 percent increase.

Industry deliveries totaled 745,997, according to Autodata Corp., an auto-information company based in Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey.

Ford fell 24 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $6.97 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have more than tripled this year.

Sales Declines

The industry’s 1 percent sales gain in August snapped a streak of monthly sales declines dating to 2007. With inventory at a 24-year low at the end of August because of demand during the $3 billion clunkers program, customers found fewer choices and automakers less willing to offer discounts last month.

“We knew sales would slow down significantly after the cash for clunkers surge,” said Stephen Spivey, senior auto analyst at Frost & Sullivan in San Antonio. “October will tell you what kind of rebound comes off that dip.”

Industrywide light-vehicle sales will be 10.3 million this year and 11.5 million in 2010, Westlake Village, California- based J.D. Power estimates. Last year’s sales were 13.2 million, after averaging 16.8 million this decade through 2007.

Auto researcher Edmunds.com raised its forecast for September’s annual pace to 9.34 million on Sept. 24, from 8.8 million a week earlier.

Late-Month Swoon?

U.S. auto sales petered out at the end of September after a mid-month rebound from the end of the clunkers program, said Jessica Caldwell, an analyst at Santa Monica, California-based Edmunds.

“The last days of the month didn’t finish on the strong note we expected,” Caldwell said in an interview. “That doesn’t say the most positive things for October, November and December.”

Ford’s senior economist, Emily Kolinski Morris, said she detects a “more positive tone” in the economy because job losses are moderating, the housing market is stabilizing and a survey for the Institute of Supply Management suggested two months of manufacturing expansion.

GM isn’t conceding that a weak September windup foreshadows more of the same for the rest of the year.

“I’m still thinking the industry will start to come back into form in the fourth quarter,” said Mark LaNeve, GM’s vice president of U.S. sales. “Didn’t see it in September.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Jeff Green in Southfield, Michigan, at jgreen16@bloomberg.net; Keith Naughton in Southfield, Michigan, at Knaughton3@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 1, 2009 18:17 EDT