Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Democrats sense a tidal swell in the electorate and are looking to gain more than two dozen seats in the House after the votes are counted Nov. 4.

Among the once-safe Republican seats that suddenly look competitive is that of Phil English, a senior member of the House Ways and Means Committee who has represented the Erie, Pennsylvania, area since 1995. As Erie's unemployment rate has climbed to almost 6 percent -- a rise of 25 percent since the last election -- what had been an easy glide for English is turning into a battle.

Over in Michigan, eight-term Republican Joe Knollenberg is drawing less than 50 percent in polls, historically a signal of an incumbent's vulnerability. In the same boat is Representative Bill Sali, a first-termer from staunchly Republican Idaho.

Another telling race is for the Omaha, Nebraska-area district represented by Lee Terry. While Terry won in 2006 with 84 percent of the vote, and his district gave President George W. Bush 61 percent of its vote in 2004, polls show his rematch against Democrat Jim Esch is tightening.

The party's troubles extend to John McCain's backyard.

Representative John Shadegg, first elected in the Republican congressional takeover in 1994, has won his Phoenix-area district by 59 percent or better in every election. Yet his 2008 challenger, Democrat Bob Lord, is suddenly making it a competitive race. One poll done by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee at the beginning of the month shows the race essentially tied.

Independent analyst Stu Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, said the chances of Lord upsetting the seven- term incumbent are still a ``long-shot, but it used to be a no- shot.''

Tempering Democratic glee is the handful of races that have turned against the party's incumbents.

In Florida, Democrat Tim Mahoney holds the seat vacated by Republican Mark Foley following revelation of his e-mails to teenage congressional pages. Mahoney is embroiled in his own scandal over allegations he had an extramarital affair with a former staffer and paid her to keep quiet.

Representative Paul Kanjorski is trailing Republican challenger Lou Barletta in the race for the northeastern Pennsylvania district the Democrat has held for 12 terms.

Still, Rothenberg now is forecasting Republicans will suffer a net loss of 25 to 30 House seats on Nov. 4. Charlie Cook, of the rival Cook Political Report, has boosted his forecast to a 15- to 25-seat loss for Republicans. Democrats now hold a 235 to 199 majority.

``The Republicans are underperforming in many more races than we would have expected six months ago,'' Rothenberg said.

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Democrat Barack Obama is scoring well with some key swing- voter groups: independents, Catholics and women without a college degree.

Self-described independents, who have swung back and forth between the two candidates, now favor Obama by 5 points over McCain in the latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll.

He also is winning over Catholics, getting 51 percent of those voters, compared with McCain's 37 percent. White Catholics favor Obama over the Arizona senator 46 percent to 43 percent. Bush won 52 percent of Catholic voters in 2004.

Obama has an edge over McCain among women without a college degree, 49 percent to 42 percent, according to the Oct. 10-13 Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll. That group went decisively for former President Bill Clinton in his two White House victories and for Bush in 2000 and 2004.

McCain has cemented his following among conservatives.

In three surveys starting in August, McCain has consistently won at least seven out of 10 voters who describe themselves as ``conservative.''

McCain's attacks on Obama in the last month may be to blame for losing some swing voters, said Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director. ``He's riling up his base but he's moving away the moderates and the independents,'' she said.

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The presidential election is pitting father against son on the Penn State campus. Football coach and Pennsylvania icon Joe Paterno, 81, is a longtime Republican and a McCain backer. His son and quarterback coach, Joseph ``Jay'' Paterno Jr., wants to send Obama into the game. He's been campaigning for Illinois Senator Obama, including an appearance in State College, Pennsylvania, this week. ``JoePa'' and ``JayPa'' at least can unite around the Nittany Lions' 7-0 record this year.

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Joe Six-Pack or Joe Chardonnay? According to an analysis by the Tax Policy Center, a non-partisan research organization in Washington, 92.7 percent of the tax savings from McCain's plan to reduce the tax rate on capital gains and dividends to 7.5 percent would go to households earning more than $200,000 a year. Those who earn more than $1 million a year would get 66.2 percent of the savings, the Tax Policy Center said.

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When McCain, during this week's debate, derisively said Obama ``has never traveled south of our border'' the Democrat didn't dispute that. Obama, during a visit to the border at Brownsville, Texas, back in March said he had been south.

``This is the first time that I've been this close here, in Texas. I've been in Mexico, when I was in college and was going to school in Southern California,'' Obama said. ``I can't entirely talk about it.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Joe Sobczyk in Washington at jsobczyk@bloomberg.net; Laura Litvan in Washington at llitvan@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 17, 2008 18:12 EDT