By Tim Mullaney
Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- New York Times Co. and Clear Channel Communications Inc., the largest U.S. radio broadcaster, are among the most vulnerable media companies in the event of a U.S. recession, according to a report by Moody's Corp.
New York Times, Clear Channel, Gannett Co. and Belo Corp. have the greatest chance of having bond ratings lowered if a recession occurs during the next two years, analyst Neil Begley and colleagues said today in the report. Gannett, based in McLean, Virginia, is the largest U.S. newspaper publisher, and Dallas-based Belo Corp. owns the Dallas Morning News.
The newspaper companies are most at risk partly because of the shift in advertising to the Internet, the debt ratings company said. Most other media companies in the study will fare better because they have invested in diverse businesses and avoided acquisition sprees that led to heavy debt loads, Begley said in an interview from New York.
``Newspapers have other issues,'' aside from a possible economic decline, he said. ``Their prices are the highest in advertising, so it makes it easy for advertisers to go elsewhere, especially in a recession.''
Moody's said four other media companies are ``exposed'' to possible ratings cuts in the event of a recession. The four are New York publisher Dow Jones & Co., Cox Enterprises Inc., advertising agency holding company Omnicom Group Inc. and TV station operator Hearst-Argyle Television Inc. All but Atlanta- based Cox, which owns newspapers, cable and radio assets and the AutoTrader.com used-car site, are in New York.
Ten more companies are rated ``moderately exposed'' to a downgrade, including Burbank, California-based Walt Disney Co. and News Corp., CBS Corp. and Time Warner Inc., all of which have headquarters in New York.
Cable Less Vulnerable
Viacom Inc. and cable companies Cox Communications of Atlanta, Philadelphia-based Comcast Corp. and Time Warner Cable Inc. of New York are ``more safely positioned,'' Moody's said. Cable companies are less vulnerable because they rely more on subscription fees than on ad sales, Begley said.
``Much of the field is in good shape,'' Begley said. ``Even the companies that are vulnerable, it's more about the cyclicality and the secular downturn than the amount of leverage that they have.''
Only companies with investment-grade bond ratings were covered in the report, a test that excluded Chicago-based Tribune Co. and McClatchy Co., Begley said. Both companies get most of their profits from newspapers and have heavy debt and ``junk ratings,'' because of McClatchy's takeover of Knight-Ridder Inc. and Tribune's pending leveraged buyout.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Mullaney in New York at Tmullaney1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 12, 2007 18:12 EDT
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