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Strauss-Kahn Sees G-20 Adopting Timeline, Method on Imbalances

By Sandrine Rastello and Rebecca Christie

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said he expects finance ministers from Group of 20 nations to adopt a timetable and plan to ensure the next global economic expansion is more balanced.

Officials will probably agree at a meeting this week on details of a framework for the IMF to analyze the global impact of countries’ individual policies and to propose changes at the next head of states meeting in June 2010, Strauss-Kahn said in an interview in Washington yesterday.

Under the proposal, “countries give us their forecasts, we do the numbers to see if they add up,” he said. At the leaders’ meeting “we say, ‘here are the simulations we did, where things are going if each of you does what they have said and, here’s how we can improve things if we do a bit differently.’”

The G-20 finance ministers gather Nov. 6-7 in St. Andrews, Scotland, as data suggest a worldwide recovery is taking shape after a year in which they crafted more than $1 trillion in joint stimulus and a blueprint for revamping banking regulation. Their next challenge is to ensure the ebbing of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression doesn’t sap momentum from efforts to make their economies less crisis-prone.

“As the process of the recovery continues it is vital that we cooperate more effectively in managing the world economy, recognizing that our economies are highly interdependent,” U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said in a letter to his G-20 counterparts released yesterday by his office.

Cooperation to Continue

In a Bloomberg television interview in Washington yesterday, Strauss-Kahn said the cooperation that nations demonstrated during the crisis has not receded so far and that he was confident there was “a political will to work together.”

Policy makers are seeking to ensure the return to growth next year is more balanced after international gaps in savings, spending, investment and credit availability set the stage for the financial crisis. The world became too reliant on U.S. consumers for demand and borrowing by China and other emerging markets for low interest rates, economists say.

“The biggest players, namely the U.S. but also China and Asia, do show the willingness to do something together to try to fight against big imbalances,” Strauss-Kahn said. “Not because they’ve become good boys but because this is in their own interest.”

Still, signs are emerging that the collaboration may be fraying. Lawmakers in the U.S. and U.K. are at odds over how to deal with the risk posed by large financial institutions, China is resisting demands to let its currency strengthen and central banks are moving to remove stimulus at varying speeds.

U.S. Consumers

The rebalancing has already started with U.S. consumers stepping up savings and China moving toward a “more domestic- led” growth model that will in time result in a stronger yuan, from a currently “undervalued” level, Strauss-Kahn said.

China has prevented the yuan, also known as the renminbi, from appreciating since July 2008, after it advanced 21 percent against the dollar over three years. Yuan forwards climbed for the first time in three days, as traders bet the currency will rise 2.5 percent over 12 months as a recovery in China’s economy persuades the government to resume appreciation. In the spot market, the yuan was at 6.8278 from 6.8280 yesterday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System.

Currencies may also be a topic at the meetings, a U.S. Treasury Department official who spoke on condition of anonymity said yesterday. The dollar reached a 14-month low against the euro on Oct. 26 as low U.S. interest rates and capital outflows offset a narrowing trade deficit.

Imbalances Back

“The imbalances are back,” Niall Ferguson, a Harvard University professor, said in an Oct. 28 Bloomberg radio interview. “In some ways they’re worse. As the dollar weakens and as China follows the dollar down by means of its dollar peg, the pain is being transferred.”

The recovery will be “sluggish,” Strauss-Kahn said, warning that the crisis is not over and that low private demand calls for stimulus plans to be implemented “to avoid any risk of double dip.”

The Treasury official said that it’s too soon to remove stimulus measures. Even so, the G-20 ministers will start planning for an eventual withdrawal.

Strauss-Kahn said it isn’t clear yet whether the content on the talks on imbalances will be made public in the future.

“It’s learning by doing,” he said. “We are inventing a new procedure.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Sandrine Rastello in Washington at srastello@bloomberg.net; Rebecca Christie in Washington at rchristie4@bloomberg.net;

Last Updated: November 4, 2009 00:01 EST

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