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Colombia Inflation Rose More Than Expected in January (Update1)

By Andrea Jaramillo

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Colombia's monthly inflation rate rose more than expected in January, led by food and recreation prices.

Consumer prices gained 0.77 percent last month after a 0.23 percent increase in December, the state statistics agency said today in Bogota. A Bloomberg News survey of 21 analysts had a median forecast for an increase of 0.58 percent.

``Food prices normally rise at the beginning of the year, and unusually dry weather, which cut into supply, likely added to the increase,'' Carolina Ramirez, head analyst at Banco Santander Central Hispano SA's unit in Colombia, said before the report.

Colombia's central bank on Jan. 26 raised the benchmark lending rate a quarter-point to 7.75 percent to prevent the fastest economic growth in more than a decade from fueling inflation. Policy makers will raise the overnight rate to at least 8 percent in 2007, Ramirez said.

``Should inflation quicken more than expected in these next few months, the bank may lift rates above 8 percent,'' Ramirez said. An appreciating currency will help hold import costs in check, she said.

Annual inflation increased in January to 4.71 percent after rising 4.48 percent in December, according to the agency. Colombia's central bank targets inflation of 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent for this year.

Policy makers raised rates six times in 2006 from a three- year low of 6 percent. Consumer prices in Latin America's fourth- biggest economy rose 4.5 percent in 2006, at the midpoint of the central bank's range of 4 percent to 5 percent.

Colombia's economy expanded at a faster-than-expected 7.7 percent pace in the third quarter. The peso strengthened 8.1 percent against the dollar in the last six months, making it the fourth-best performer among currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Culture and recreation prices rose 1.29 percent in January while food prices increased 1.15 percent, the agency said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Andrea Jaramillo in Bogota at ajaramillo1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 1, 2007 20:19 EST

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