Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned Mexican oil monopoly, said daily crude oil production in January was little changed from December. Output at its largest field, Cantarell, fell to the lowest in more than eight years.

Output rose to an average 2.957 million barrels a day from 2.954 million barrels in December, Mexico City-based Pemex, as the company is known, said today in an e-mailed statement. Production fell 5.9 percent from January 2007.

Crude output fell short of a company goal of 3.1 million barrels a day. Production may fall to 2.8 million barrels this year because Mexico does not have production capacity to make up for the decline at Cantarell, its largest oil field, according to Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consulting firm.

``In the short term, there are not many alternatives,'' said Alejandra Leon, an analyst with CERA in Mexico City. ``It has been very difficult finding projects that could replace the magnitude of the fall at Cantarell.''

Crude output at Cantarell, the third-largest crude field in the world, fell 1.3 percent in January from the previous month to 1.24 million barrels daily, the lowest since December 1999. The offshore field accounted for about 42 percent of Mexico's oil output in January. The field peaked in December 2003 at 2.19 million barrels, or about two-thirds of Pemex's production that month.

President Felipe Calderon will present his plan to open the oil industry to private and foreign investment next month, said Energy Minister Georgina Kessel on Feb. 14. Mexico must begin exploring in waters deeper than 1,500 meters to help counter the decline at Cantarell and replace reserves.

Kessel set a goal of raising the rate of replacement of proven oil reserves to 100 percent by 2012. The company's reserves may run out in 9.3 years if the goal isn't met, she has said.

Crude exports fell 4.1 percent to 1.434 million barrels a day in January from December after closing export terminals multiple times because of stormy weather. Exports to the U.S. fell 1 percent to 1.146 million barrels a day. Pemex is the third-largest supplier of crude to the U.S.

Natural gas output reached a record 6.534 billion cubic feet a day last month, the company said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Andres R. Martinez in Mexico City at amartinez28@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 21, 2008 16:56 EST