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Argentina's Inflation Probably Slowed in October: Week Ahead

By Drew Benson

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine inflation probably eased in October as slumping auto production over the past two months signals South America's second-largest economy is continuing to lose steam.

The slowing economy ``gives the government more time to deal with the inflation problem, but it doesn't mean that it's been solved,'' said Federico Thomsen, the head of E.F. Thomsen, a political and economic consulting company in Buenos Aires.

Some economists have questioned the accuracy of official price data since then-President Nestor Kirchner began changing personnel at the national statistics agency in January 2007.

Prices rose between 0.7 percent and 1 percent in October from the previous month and 13 percent from a year earlier, Thomsen estimated, adding it's likely the government will come up with smaller figures.

Argentines expect prices to rise by 34.2 percent over the next 12 months, according to a poll of 1,215 people conducted from Oct. 3 to Oct. 10 by Buenos Aires-based Poliarquia Consultores. The poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Argentina is slated to announce October's inflation data on Nov. 11 at 1 p.m. New York time. On Oct. 10, the government said consumer prices rose 8.7 percent in September from a year earlier.

Among indications that the economy is slowing, Argentine automakers cut production 7.7 percent on the month during October, the nation's automakers association reported on Nov. 5.

Argentine Cabinet Chief Sergio Massa last month called for a national discussion about inflation statistics to help end a dispute over whether the government is manipulating the data.

He didn't say the government was considering changes to the inflation index, which President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the former president's wife, defended during a Sept. 25 speech in New York.

Markets Last Week

Last week, the yield on Argentina's benchmark 8.28 percent dollar bonds due in 2033 declined 140 basis points, or 1.4 percentage points, to 26.118 percent, according to Bloomberg data. The bond's price rose 1.75 cents on the dollar to 27.25 cents.

The Buenos Aires benchmark Merval stock index rose 8.5 percent to 1096.60. Banco Macro SA (BMA AF) rose 35.2 percent to 3.57 pesos while Mirgor Sacifia (MIRG AF), which makes climate- control systems for vehicles, fell 11.8 percent to 66 pesos.

The following is a list of events in Argentina this week:


Event                                         Date
Inflation (October)                           Nov. 11
Economic Activity (September)                 Nov. 14

To contact the reporters on this story: Drew Benson in Buenos Aires at Abenson9@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 9, 2008 21:01 EST

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