Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s consumer stocks from Natura Cosmeticos SA to Redecard SA may benefit and commodity producers such as Petroleo Brasileiro SA may lose as the stock exchange makes changes to the benchmark index.

Rising investor demand for shares linked to domestic growth is spurring a shift in Bovespa index weightings that depend on liquidity, said Jorge Simino, the investment director of the nation’s fourth-largest pension fund. The measure, more than 50 percent weighted to energy, paper, metals and food exporters, rallied 49 percent this year as prospects gross domestic product will rebound lifted shares of homebuilders and retailers.

“The index today is a bad cross-section of the economy,” said Roni Lacerda, who oversees 1.7 billion reais ($896 million) in assets at Mercatto Gestao de Recursos, a brokerage in Rio de Janeiro. “The big group of cyclical companies account for more than half of the index. In the GDP they account for maybe 15 percent, which is a big difference.”

Sao Paulo-based BM&FBovespa SA announced today the first preview of the index’s latest re-weighting, which will be effective from September through the end of the year, according to the exchange owner’s Web site. The 41-year-old gauge is rebalanced every four months based on stocks’ liquidity during the previous 12 months.

Petrobras

The weighting of Petrobras, as Brazil’s state-controlled oil company is known, will drop by 1.4 percentage point to 15.2 percent, according to today’s preview. That’s more than the 1.28 percentage point decline projected by Renata Cabral, a Sao Paulo-based analyst at Banco Santander SA, according to a July 31 note.

Natura will likely gain 0.05 percentage point, while Redecard may jump to 1.5 percent of the index from 1.2 percent, the exchange said.

The 27 percent increase in Redecard’s importance makes it the second-biggest gainer after Aracruz Celulose SA, the pulpmaker taken over by a rival, which may increase its weight to 1.3 percent from 1 percent.

MMX Mineracao & Metalicos SA, the mining company controlled by Brazilian billionaire Eike Batista, may be added to the index after more than doubling this year. The shares rallied 6.6 percent to 7.60 reais, the highest since June 9. The Bovespa index climbed 2.3 percent.

Banco Nossa Caixa SA, the lender taken over by Banco do Brasil SA, may be the biggest loser in this re-weighting, dropping to 0.31 percent of the index from 0.39 percent previously, BM&FBovespa said.

Increased Demand

“During the last six, seven months, the strong presence of foreign investors has increased demand for domestic stocks,” said Simino, who helps oversee 15.4 billion reais ($8.2 billion) in Sao Paulo at pension fund Fundacao Cesp. “With this demand, certainly the liquidity of these stocks will rise and likely will increase their participation in the index.”

Brazilian consumer companies have surged this year on speculation record-low interest rates and government stimulus plans will help the country rebound from the global recession. Homebuilders Rossi Residencial SA and Gafisa SA more than doubled for the biggest gains in the Bovespa. Lojas Renner SA, the largest publicly traded clothing retailer, and B2W Cia. Global do Varejo, the biggest Internet seller, rose more than 70 percent.

Cyrela, Renner

Cyrela Brazil Realty SA Empreendimentos & Participacoes, Gafisa and Rossi, the three real estate companies listed on the Bovespa index, together account for 3.4 percent. Renner and B2W each are less than 1 percent. Rossi, Gafisa and Renner will increase their weight in the index, while Cyrela and B2W will slip in importance, according to today’s preview.

“Consumers’ and homebuilders’ trading volume increased since March and April,” said Walter Mendes, who oversees 19 billion reais in Sao Paulo as head of equity management at Itau Unibanco Holding SA, Brazil’s biggest bank. “During the next re-weighting, in December, there is a big chance that these shares will increase their weight in the index.”

Petrobras and Vale SA, the world’s biggest iron-ore producer, together will still account for one-third of the Bovespa in September after an increase in Vale’s position in the index offset declines in Petrobras’s weighting.

The two companies’ weighting increased in the May rebalancing as investors retreated to Brazil’s biggest companies at the end of 2008. The Bovespa sank a record 41 percent that year.

Vale preferred shares, the most traded, probably will increase in weight in September to 12.2 percent from 12.1 percent, while common shares will climb to 3.5 percent from 3.4 percent, the exchange said.

‘Big Presence’

“Petrobras and Vale will have a big presence in the index for a long time, but both companies will reduce their weight in the index as the economy and the market reinvigorate,” said Luis Carlos Afonso, who oversees 10.7 billion reais in shares as the investment director of Petros, Brazil’s second-largest pension fund.

Construction accounted for about 5.1 percent of Brazil’s GDP in 2008, according to preliminary data from the national statistics agency known as IBGE. Commerce comprised 12 percent, and financial services was 6.7 percent.

The mineral extraction industry represented about 3.6 percent of GDP last year. The oil and natural gas industry accounted for 2.1 percent of the economy in 2006, the most recent year for which data was available.

The low number of listed companies representing bigger parts of the economy, such as education and health care, will limit a more accurate reflection of the country, Fundacao Cesp’s Simino said. Those industries, which comprised about 15 percent of Brazil’s 2008 GDP, aren’t represented in the Bovespa index.

The exchange will release a second preview of changes on Aug. 17 and a third on Aug. 31, according to BM&FBovespa’s Web site.

Markets

The Bovespa index rose 0.6 percent to 54,765.72 last week, led by Votorantim Celulose e Papel SA, which climbed 12 percent, and Aracruz Celulose SA, which gained 9.9 percent. Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA, Brazil’s second-largest airline, fell the most in the measure with a 7.7 percent drop.

The yield on the local-currency zero-coupon bonds due January 2010 fell 1 basis points, or 0.01 percentage point, to 8.7 percent. Brazil’s real strengthened 1.6 percent to 1.8651 per U.S. dollar.

The following is a list of events in Brazil this week:

Event                                                  Date
Re-weighting of Bovespa Index - Sep-Dec                Aug 3
FGV CPI IPC-S Inflation Index - July                   Aug 3
Industrial Production - June                           Aug 3
Trade Balance - July                                   Aug 3
Banco Bradesco SA earnings - second quarter            Aug 3
FIPE Consumer Price Index - July                       Aug 4
Gerdau SA earnings - second quarter                    Aug 6
FGV IGP-DI Inflation Index - July                      Aug 6
IBGE Inflation Index IPCA - July                       Aug 7

To contact the reporter on this story: Paulo Winterstein in Sao Paulo at pwinterstein@bloomberg.net; Francisco Marcelino in Sao Paulo at mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 3, 2009 16:40 EDT