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Emerging-Market Stocks Extend Best Monthly Rally in 16 Years

By Laura Cochrane and William Mauldin

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks rose, extending the biggest monthly gain 16 years, as higher commodity prices boosted exporters and government stimulus efforts buoyed financial and property stocks.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 1.3 percent to 568.75. The benchmark has jumped 13.9 percent in March, the biggest since December 1993. Moscow-based apartment builder PIK Group led the rebound, surging 156 percent. Emerging-market bonds headed for their best quarter in four years.

Oil rose the most since June this month and gold, platinum, lead, zinc and aluminum advanced on optimism U.S. economic stimulus plans will revive growth and boost demand for commodities. New U.S. stimulus plans took the government’s pledges to $12.8 trillion this week, while Russia’s Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said today the country would spend up to 3 percent of its gross domestic product on support for banks.

“The Fed’s actions improve the mood and the confidence of investors so they’re not worried anymore about taking bigger risks in emerging markets,” said Nerea Heras, who manages a fund invested in Brazil, Russia, India and China, and an eastern European fund at Santander Asset Management in Madrid. “Last year was a pretty bad year for emerging markets and people have realized that every stock has to have some value.”

Emerging-markets stocks plunged 54 percent in 2008, the biggest annual decline in six years, as the global credit crisis curbed demand for exports and shut off credit and investment. Capital flows to developing countries have shrunk this year to about one-third of the peak of $1.2 trillion reached in 2007, the World Bank said today.

Economic Growth

Russia’s Micex index rose 3.5 percent and the RTS index of dollar-denominated Russian stocks climbed 2 percent after gains in oil, the country’s main export earner. The RTS has gained 28 percent in March, the biggest monthly gain since August 2000.

OAO Sberbank, Russia’s biggest bank, increased 3.7 percent today. PIK Group rose 6.4 percent in London. Economy Minister Elvira Nabiullina said on the weekend the country’s housing industry may become the main driver of economic growth when the global financial crisis ends.

“Oil prices are helping Russia, there is no question about that,” said Marina Akopian, co-manager of the Hexam Emerging Europe Fund in London. “Because emerging markets performance was so severe last year, it’s much easier for them to have a bounce.”

Mol Nyrt., Hungary’s larget refiner, added 6.8 percent to the highest in almost two months and OAO Uralkali, Russia’s second-largest potash company, rose 9 percent.

Bond Gains

BRD-Groupe Societe Generale, Romania’s second-biggest bank jumped 9.5 percent, helping to boost the nation’s BET stock index 4 percent. The benchmark has gained 24 percent in March, the biggest monthly rally since January 2005, after the country was granted a 13 billion-euro ($17.3 billion) International Monetary Fund bailout.

Investec Plc, the South African investment and private bank, advanced 6.5 percent.

The extra yield investors demand to own developing nations’ bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries fell 4 basis points to 6.35 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI+ Index. The so-called spread has dropped 55 basis points since Dec. 31, the biggest quarterly decline since 2005.

To contact the reporter on this story: Laura Cochrane in London at lcochrane3@bloomberg.net; William Mauldin in Moscow at wmauldin1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 31, 2009 08:40 EDT

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