By Laura Cochrane
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Braskem SA, Brazil's biggest petrochemicals company, and Empresa Nacional de Electricidad SA, Chile's largest electricity provider, may have ``trouble'' repaying $2.5 billion of debt in the next 15 months, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets.
The companies only have ``small cash positions'' to cover their debt repayments, putting pressure on the companies to seek funding at a time when it's scarce and expensive, according to RBC analysts led by Eduardo Suarez in Toronto. Spokespeople for Braskem and Endesa Chile both said their companies have enough cash to honor debt repayments.
Developing nations' borrowing costs almost tripled this year and emerging-market stocks dropped more than 60 percent as the worldwide credit crisis squeezes liquidity. Investor reluctance to buy assets may last two years and lead to a ``number'' of emerging-market defaults, particularly in Russia where $115 billion of debt has to be refinanced in the 12 months to September 2009, the analysts wrote.
``The number of reasons to be concerned about emerging- market corporates has multiplied in recent weeks,'' Suarez said. Russian companies will be the ``most trouble among lower-tier corporates'' because they're also dealing with a plunge in demand for oil, steel and other commodities, he said.
Debt Repayments
Braskem faces debt repayments of $1.5 billion through the end of 2009 and has $1.1 billion of cash and liquid assets to draw on, according to data compiled by RBC Capital. Endesa has $1 billion of debt due to be repaid in the same period and $150 million of cash and assets, the report said.
Endesa Chile has enough cash and credit lines to meet debt repayments, the company said in an e-mailed response to questions today. As of Sept. 30, Endesa Chile had more than $4 billion of consolidated debt, of which $977 million matures next year, it said in a press statement last month.
Braskem has ``nothing to worry about'' with 1.8 billion reais ($750 million) of cash available to repay 1.2 billion reais of debt expiring in the next 12 months, Carlos Fadigas, vice president for finance, said in an e-mail.
In Russia, the cost to protect against a default by Gazprom OAO, the world's largest gas company, has risen more than sixfold this year to above 1,000 basis points, the level which investors consider distressed, according to CMA Datavision prices for credit-default swaps. The contracts rise as perceptions of credit quality deteriorate.
`Over-Aggressive'
``The rapidly sliding oil and gas prices will continue to pressure Gazprom spreads, beyond those that many emerging-market investment-grade corporates experience,'' Suarez said.
Credit-default swaps, conceived to protect bondholders against default, pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A basis point on a credit- default swap contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.
Investors should also be wary of the ``over-aggressive use of derivatives'' by emerging-market companies that have already caused losses at corporates in Mexico and Brazil, the analysts wrote.
Cia. Siderurgica Nacional SA, Brazil's third-largest steelmaker, lost $560 million from bad bets using equity derivatives, causing a profit slump of 94 percent in the third quarter. The Rio de Janeiro-based company also said yesterday it may cut its steel prices 5 percent next year as domestic demand stagnates.
Commodities Slump
The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index, made up of 19 commodities including crude oil and cocoa, slid to its lowest close in more than five years yesterday. Copper, aluminum and tin all fell today.
An official from Gazprom, who wouldn't be identified because of corporate policy, declined to comment. CSN wasn't immediately able to comment when contacted before business hours in Brazil.
The extra yield investors demand to own developing nations' bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries rose to 7.08 percentage points, from 2.39 percentage points at the end of 2007, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI+ Index.
To contact the reporter on this story: Laura Cochrane in London at lcochrane3@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 19, 2008 12:09 EST
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