By Guillermo Parra-Bernal
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's lead over his main rival ahead of the Dec. 3 presidential election narrowed in October to 4 percentage points in polling by Caracas-based public opinion research company AKSA Partners.
Chavez, who had the support of 52 percent of those polled compared with 48 percent for opposition candidate Manuel Rosales, has seen his lead dwindle from 13 points in September, AKSA President Alfredo Keller said. AKSA's poll, which assumed just two candidates, is the only one of five released in the past two weeks that shows Rosales gaining on Chavez.
``Perhaps even the hardcore faction of Chavez supporters is getting tired of the administration's message,'' Keller said in a telephone interview today from Puerto Ordaz, Venezuela.
The poll, taken in the first two weeks of October, found that the percentage voters identified as ``hardcore'' Chavez followers declined to 22 percent from 25 percent in September. ``Hardcore'' opposition, grew to 27 percent from 24 percent in September and 20 percent in March, when Chavez held a 52 percentage point lead over any yet-to-be-named opponent.
Polls by Zogby and other local pollsters released since Oct. 20 showed Chavez holding a bigger lead in his efforts to persuade Venezuelans to re-elect him to a second, six-year term.
Zogby on Oct. 23 said Chavez had the backing of 59 percent of the 800 people, compared with 24 percent for Rosales. The Oct. 1-16 survey, commissioned by the University of Miami School of Communication, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Two other two polls by Cifras Escenarios CA and Opinion Publica Consultores reported two weeks ago by newspapers Panorama and El Nacional showed similar results. Neither of the companies nor the newspapers provided the size of the survey or the margin of error.
ASKA interviewed 1,200 Venezuelans nationwide in their homes for the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. Keller didn't say who paid for the surveys.
Voters in Venezuela tend to hide their voting intentions in part out of fear they'll be persecuted by the government or the opposition, Keller said in an interview last month. The phenomenon often distorts opinion poll results, he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Guillermo Parra-Bernal in Caracas at gparra@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 2, 2006 14:06 EST
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