Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- A fight between Bolivian President Evo Morales and regional governors over control of the country's energy wealth is heading for a showdown referendum vote this weekend that puts all the feuding politicians' jobs on the line.

Morales, 48, has an edge in the ballot, in which voters will be asked whether to remove the president and eight governors from office. If he prevails, his hand will be strengthened as he moves to pass a new constitution that would enhance his power.

Regional leaders in the nation's natural gas-rich provinces are chafing at Morales's decision to take more taxes for the central government and at his calls to break up and distribute large landholdings, mostly in opposition-led areas. Four provinces expressed disapproval of the president's policies by passing referendums this year in support of autonomy.

``If Evo can get a solid win in this referendum, he'll use it as a steamroller to push his reforms,'' said Jose Carlos Campero, president of Beta Gamma SA, an economic research company in La Paz. ``But the polarization in the country will only deepen.''

Bolivia's electoral court on July 31 gave Morales an advantage in the Aug. 10 balloting, ruling that governors need 50 percent of the vote to keep their jobs. Morales's opponents have to muster about 54 percent -- more than he won in the 2005 election -- to force him and Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera from office.

Capital Quarrel

The autonomy votes, which Morales decried as ``illegal,'' and a quarrel over a proposal to move the capital, La Paz, to the southern city of Sucre, sapped momentum from the president's drive for a new constitution that enshrines state control over natural resources, limits landholdings and allows him to run for re-election. Voters would have to approve the draft constitution in a separate referendum that hasn't been scheduled.

``I'm asking the Bolivian people to judge us and, through their vote, help resolve the differences that some regional authorities have with the national government,'' Morales said May 12, when he signed the law authorizing the ballot measure.

The dispute has racial overtones. The opposition, based in the eastern lowlands, draws more support from a wealthier, European-descended population than Morales, a westerner of indigenous Aymara descent.

Autonomy

Opposition figures like Branko Marinkovic, head of the Pro- Santa Cruz Committee, a group of business and political leaders in Santa Cruz province, say their battle is for autonomy, not independence. Provinces should control more of the revenue generated within their borders and set their own energy and agricultural policies, he said in an Aug. 6 letter to Morales.

``Autonomy is the road to improving Bolivia's economy,'' Marinkovic wrote. ``Mr. President, stop fighting with the people.''

Voters will answer ``Yes'' or ``No'' on two obliquely phrased questions:

``Do you support continuing the process of change led by President Evo Morales and Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera?'' and ``Do you agree with the continuity of the policies, actions and administration of your governor?''

Losing governors must step down immediately, with their successors named by Morales. If Morales loses, the electoral court said he's required to call elections within six months.

Likely Winners

About 61 percent of Bolivians want Morales to finish his term, which ends in 2010, according to a July 5-28 poll by Gallup International. Governors received less than 50 percent support in four provinces: pro-Morales Oruro, La Paz, opposition-run Cochabamba, and gas-rich Tarija, which voted for autonomy. The poll of 3,582 people has a margin of error of 2.27 percent.

One of Morales's strongest opponents, Santa Cruz Governor Ruben Costas, is likely to survive the recall vote, Campero said, as are the heads of autonomy-seeking states Beni and Pando. Chuquisaca Governor Savina Cuellar is the only regional leader who, for technical reasons, isn't on the ballot.

In 2005, Morales was the first candidate to win a majority in a Bolivian presidential election since democracy was restored in 1952. The leader of Bolivia's main coca growers union, he ended two decades of coalition governments by uniting middle class voters in cities like La Paz and Cochabamba with a base of largely poor indigenous. The opposition hasn't recovered.

Lack of Leadership

``A lot of people are saying `If not Evo, then who?''' said Carlos Kempff, a former economic development minister. ``The lack of leadership in the opposition is one of our most important problems,'' he said by phone.

Morales took office promising greater state control of the country's natural resources, including the second-largest natural gas reserves in South America. He forced foreign oil and gas companies, including Brazil's Petroleo Brasileiro SA, to renegotiate their contracts and pay more taxes.

Yet amid record oil and gas prices, investment in exploration and production in Bolivia fell to $149 million last year, the lowest since 1996, according to the Santa Cruz-based Hydrocarbons Chamber. The chamber's members include Petrobras, Total SA, and BG Group Plc. That decline means Bolivia hasn't been able to fulfill natural gas contracts with Brazil and Argentina.

``What the country is facing with this referendum and another one on the constitution is uncertainty,'' Campero said. ``There's not much hope this will change in the next two years.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Faries in Buenos Aires at wfaries@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 8, 2008 08:55 EDT