Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Coffee output in Colombia, the world’s third-largest producer of the commodity, may fall to the low end of estimates this year because of harvesting delays triggered by excessive rainfall, a growers’ group said.

Colombia’s crop will decline to between 9.79 million and 10.8 million bags, down from 11.5 million bags in 2008, the Colombian National Coffee Growers Federation said on Aug. 28. The crop may drop to the “lower” end of that estimate, Juan Lucas Restrepo, the group’s head of marketing, said in an interview on Sept. 11 in the city of Ibague in central Colombia.

The crop will be “in the lower part of the range, given what we’ve seen in the past month,” Restrepo said.

Coffee futures may rise after stockpiles of the beans fell to “very low” levels in New York and as investors increase bets on commodities, Restrepo said. A recovery in global coffee consumption and a return to the market by roasters who have delayed purchases also will buoy the price, he said.

Coffee futures in New York have climbed 19 percent this year, as poor weather cuts harvests in Colombia and neighboring Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee producer. Coffee surged 6.55 cents, or 5.2 percent, to $1.331 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Jan. 6. Earlier, the price touched $1.339, the highest since Aug. 14.

“You see tightness in the market,” said Rodrigo Costa, a vice president of institutional sales at Newedge USA LLC. Traders speculate Colombia’s crop this year may fall below 10 million bags, he said by telephone from New York on Sept. 8.

‘Low’ Inventories

Colombian inventories of about 700,000 bags are “low” compared with 1.15 million bags last year, Restrepo said.

In July, Colombian exports slumped 32 percent to 608,000 bags from 892,000 a year earlier, the Bogota-based growers group said last month. Each bag weighs 60 kilograms (132 pounds).

Colombia’s harvest will climb next year, possibly returning to 2008’s 11.5 million bags, Restrepo said. The group expects “some delay” of the harvest late this year, which will lead to a bigger crop early next year, he said.

Global coffee consumption may resume growth rates of 1.5 percent to 2 percent a year in 2010 as economies worldwide strengthen, Restrepo said.

Farmers’ efforts in Colombia to renew plants to boost yields will help 2010 production, as will better weather, he said. Recently, there has been a “very nice flowering” of plants after production was hampered earlier this year by heavy rainfall, he said.

“We are optimistic,” Restrepo said. “The trend is definitely upward.”

Colombia’s crop next season may rise to over 11 million bags, Costa said. Colombia is the largest supplier of coffee after Brazil and Vietnam.

“People expect to see a bit more supply flow,” Costa said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Heather Walsh in Bogota at hlwalsh@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 14, 2009 18:43 EDT