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Colombia Bank Sees No Rate Increase in ‘Near Future’ (Update2)

By Alexander Cuadros

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Colombian central bank policy makers said they see no pressure to raise interest rates in the “near future” as inflation continues to decline and the economy emerges from recession.

“The inflation goal fixed for 2010 can be met without pressure to raise interest rates in the near future,” the bank said in the minutes of last month’s meeting posted today on its Web site.

The seven-member board, led by bank chief Jose Dario Uribe, voted at its meeting on Oct. 23 to set next year’s inflation target at 2 percent to 4 percent while holding its overnight lending rate at 4 percent. The bank also agreed to buy U.S. dollars and government peso bonds to inject liquidity into the market before the holiday season.

Latin America’s fifth-largest economy fell into a recession this year for the first time since 1998. Uribe expects that eight rate cuts since December will bolster consumer demand, underpinning a second-half economic rebound that will lead to zero growth this year and a 2.5 percent expansion in 2010.

Annual inflation slowed to 2.7 percent in October, below the bank’s 2009 target of 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent, the government statistics agency said yesterday.

“Economic conditions allow inflation to stay within its long-term target range, which helps anchor inflation expectations,” the minutes said. “Low and stable inflation is the best contribution that monetary policy can make to the sustained growth of the economy and employment.”

Ease ‘Pressure’

Colombia reported an urban jobless rate of 12.9 percent in September, compared to an eleven-month low of 10.4 percent in November last year.

President Alvaro Uribe said last month that a rally by the Colombian currency has caused exporters to cut jobs as they get fewer pesos for goods such as flowers and coffee sold abroad.

The peso has strengthened 18 percent in the past year, the fourth-best performance against the dollar among 26 emerging market currencies tracked by Bloomberg worldwide.

The central bank’s decision to spend as much as 3 trillion pesos ($1.5 billion) to buy dollars and bonds was meant “to ease the appreciation pressure” on the peso, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Alberto Ramos wrote in an e-mailed note today. “The bank framed the measures in the context of the typical seasonal increase in the demand for liquidity.”

The peso retreated 0.1 percent to 1,984.55 per dollar from 1982.10 yesterday.

Pause vs. Cut

The minutes said some policy makers were worried about declines in money supply and credit that may reflect a higher perception of risk, which could affect future monetary policy decisions.

This shows that the bank “discussed the possibility of continuing to cut the policy rate,” according to Ramos.

The bank also raised concern about the “dive” in exports to Venezuela, Colombia’s second-biggest trading partner.

Exports to the neighboring country fell 50 percent in September compared to the same month last year, the national statistics agency said last week.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in July pledged to end imports from the Andean nation partly in response to a plan to let the U.S. military to use Colombian bases for anti-drug operations.

“The language in the minutes is relatively dovish,” Ramos wrote. “The central bank is unlikely to hike rates in the near future.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Cuadros in Bogota at acuadros@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 6, 2009 14:37 EST

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