Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Colombian President Alvaro Uribe cleared another hurdle toward running for re-election as the lower house approved a national referendum on changing the constitution to allow presidents to serve three straight terms.

After three days of debate, the chamber voted 85-to-5 last night to approve holding a referendum, joining the Senate which passed the same bill Aug. 19. Opponents argued another term would let Uribe put too deep a stamp on Colombia's government and compromise its democratic character. The measure now goes to the nine-member constitutional court for its evaluation.

Uribe hasn't taken a public position on the referendum or said whether he'd run in the 2010 election if the constitutional change is approved. He has repeatedly stressed the need to maintain his strategies aimed at defeating the drug-funded rebels that have battled Colombia's government for more than 40 years.

“Uribe and his supporters appear to believe that only he can carry forward the security gains made over the last several years,” said Cynthia Arnson, director of the Latin America program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. “It reinforces this regional trend of presidents seeking to stay in power.”

Uribe, who already had the constitution changed once by congress so he could run again in 2006, has championed policies that helped restore business confidence and investment. The peso has strengthened more than 30 percent since he took office in 2002.

Building Momentum

“Momentum is now building and it would be a fool who suggests that Uribe, the man who has done the most for Colombia since Simon Bolivar restored independence in the 1800s, can't triumph again,” said Rupert Stebbings head of international sales at Interbolsa SA, the nation's second-biggest brokerage.

The trend of presidents pushing to stay in office has spread across the region as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, Ecuador's Rafael Correa and Bolivia's Evo Morales promoted new constitutions that extended or scrapped term limits. Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega is lobbying congress for a constitutional amendment so he can seek a second term.

In Honduras, the trigger for President Manuel Zelaya's ouster was his plan for a non-binding vote on whether to hold a referendum for a constitutional assembly.

Petition Drive

Congress took up the proposal for a third term after Uribe backers last year collected 5 million signatures favoring three consecutive four-year terms. The referendum, which would require participation by at least 25 percent of the electorate to become law, may be held by February.

While the constitutional court approved the second term, the justices, six of whom were appointed last year, may have trouble justifying a third, said Patrick Esteruelas, a Latin America risk analyst with Eurasia Group in New York.

“As much as Uribe's mix of hard-line security policies and pro-market economic policies has been very successful, his bid for a third term poses a growing risk to Colombia's institutional checks and balances and the quality and autonomy of the decision- making process,” Esteruelas said in a report.

Should the court sign off on the referendum, its passage is by no means assured, Esteruelas said. To reach a binding result, least 7.2 million Colombians would have to vote. Uribe garnered 7.4 million votes, or 62 percent, in the 2006 general elections when he was at the height of his popularity.

Economic Outlook

Since congress began considering the third-term question last year, the economy entered recession and Uribe's government has had to address disclosures that the army murdered hundreds of civilians who were passed off as guerrillas from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia killed in combat.

His mandate has also been weakened by accusations the domestic intelligence agency, known as DAS, spied on judges, journalists, opposition politicians and international non- governmental organizations. Many of Uribe's former allies in congress have been convicted over ties to paramilitary groups.

In December, a series of pyramid schemes collapsed, leading to losses of millions of dollars for roughly 500,000 Colombians, who criticized his government for failing to protect them.

The government forecasts the economy will expand 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent this year, down from 2.5 percent last year. Gross domestic product rose 7.5 percent in 2007, the fastest pace in three decades. Foreign direct investment is expected to fall to about $9 billion this year from $10.5 billion last year.

Uribe has until the end of November to declare himself a candidate for the next presidential elections.

To contact the reporter on this story: Helen Murphy in Bogota at hmurphy1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 2, 2009 13:27 EDT