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Kazakh Central Bank Rules Out Devaluation, Loan Rate May Fall

By Laura Cochrane and Emma O’Brien

May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Kazakhstan’s central bank ruled out further devaluation in its currency this year as the rebound in oil and commodities helps the energy-led economy recover.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan, which devalued the tenge by 21 percent against the dollar in February, will keep its pledge at the time to manage the currency at about 150 per dollar, Governor Grigori Marchenko said in an interview in London today. The bank may cut its benchmark refinancing rate for a fifth time this year, to 8 percent from 9 percent, should inflation slow to around 7.5 or 7.7 percent, he added.

“As a central bank we are going to stick to the corridor and there will be no more devaluations this year,” he said. “With current commodity prices, like oil and wheat and metals, there is no need and there is also no pressure.”

The central Asian nation, which holds 3.2 percent of the world’s oil reserves according to BP Plc, was stung by a 67 percent drop in oil prices and seizure in global credit markets that caused its biggest lender, BTA Bank, to default. Crude in New York has since rebounded 44 percent amid optimism the worst of the global recession is over.

Kazakhstan has restrained the tenge compared with a depreciation in Russia’s ruble of as much as 35 percent against the dollar since August and a plunge in Ukraine’s hryvnia as the financial crisis sapped demand for exports and pushed the economies toward recession.

“There were lots of publications saying that there should be a second wave of devaluations. I disagree,” Marchenko said. “The corridor is established at the right level.”

Tenge Rate

The tenge was little changed at 150.2600 per dollar by 8:21 p.m. in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s financial capital.

While the former Soviet republic’s economy and exporters would benefit from a further decline in the tenge of as much as 12 percent, the “optimism toward emerging markets and strong oil prices” means Kazakhstan will probably be able to hold the tenge, said Vladimir Osakovsky, a Moscow-based economy for UniCredit SpA. “The local currency market is also very shallow so it’s not very hard for them to maintain it at the moment.”

Should oil prices resume their retreat to $25 a barrel, Kazakhstan has a “contingency plan” that includes seeking talks with the International Monetary Fund, issuing unsecured credit to lenders and expanding the list of collateral acceptable for repurchase agreements, Marchenko said.

Crude slid 1.1 percent to $57.99 a barrel in New York today, from a record $147.27 in July.

To contact the reporters on this story: Laura Cochrane in London at lcochrane3@bloomberg.net; Emma O’Brien in Moscow at eobrien6@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 15, 2009 11:53 EDT

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