Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Norway’s splintered opposition may oust Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg’s ruling coalition in the Sept. 14 election without gaining power, according to political analysts and the latest opinion polls.

The four-party opposition, fronted by the Progress Party and Conservatives, has support of 51.8 percent, according to the average of four polls today and yesterday. The ruling coalition of the Labor Party, the Socialist Left and the Center Party got backing of 45.5 percent.

Divisions within the opposition, with the smaller Liberals and Christian Democrats reluctant to join the Progress Party because of its anti-immigration message, may fracture efforts to forge a common platform and leave Labor in power with a minority government. Labor ruled in a minority between 2000 and 2001.

The outcome may be “total chaos, in which case the Labor Party, as the largest party, is likely to go on as a minority government,” said Anders Todal Jenssen, a political science professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim.

The two sides are battling for stewardship of the world’s second-richest nation per capita, which has amassed a fund worth $420 billion from its oil and gas exports. Stoltenberg this year tapped a record amount of the wealth to successfully steer the country out of its first recession in two decades.

Tax Cutters

A poll by TNS Gallup, the largest of the surveys, for TV 2 showed the government with 44.4 percent, compared with 52.6 percent for the opposition. Gallup polled 1,737 people on Sept. 7-10. Two of the four polls released over the past two days showed the government bloc in the lead.

The Progress Party, led by 40-year-old Siv Jensen, wants to cut taxes by at least 30 billion kroner, raise spending on health care and the elderly and scrap a rule limiting spending to 4 percent of the nation’s oil fund. It also proposes selling state assets, including part of a stake in StatoilHydro ASA, and cracking down on immigration.

Jensen, who calls Margaret Thatcher a role model, this year said Norway was in danger of “sneak Islamization.” She has said she wouldn’t back a government of the other opposition parties. The party has never ruled since being formed as anti- tax movement in 1973.

The Conservatives, the second-biggest party in opposition, have promised immediate tax cuts of 5 billion kroner.

Business Friendly

A change “back to the conservative government would have effects on the long-term growth of the economy by having a more entrepreneur-friendly tax regime,” said Oeystein Doerum, chief economist at DnB NOR ASA, Norway’s biggest bank.

The Conservatives for the first time have said they would consider forming a coalition with the Progress Party. Leader Erna Solberg is also courting the two smaller parties. The three ruled as a minority government until 2005 after beating Labor in 2001. A prior constellation of the three fell apart in 2000 after 2 1/2 years amid disagreement over energy policy.

“The Progress Party is still looked on as too extreme to be part of a government,” Hallstein Bjercke, deputy leader of the Civita a think tank in Oslo, said in an interview. “They will certainly not manage to make a majority government with all the four opposition parties.”

Stoltenberg, 50, and his allies have sought to capitalize on steering Norway out of its first recession in two decades while contending with an opposition promising more spending and lower taxes. The government pushed spending to a record this year to become the first to win re-election in 16 years.

“What they haven’t done is promise any new major reforms,” Todal Jenssen said on Sept. 10. “We’ll see the present government fall on Monday night even though they performed well.”

Coalition Record

The coalition came to power in 2005, ousting a bloc of Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Liberals by vowing to spend more on health and education and rolling back some of the 23.5 billion ($3.9 billion) in tax cuts the prior four years. Stoltenberg has vowed to keep taxes unchanged over the next governing period.

Norway discovered oil in the North Sea about 40 years ago, transforming the country into the second-richest country per capita last year with a budget surplus of about 20 percent of gross domestic product. The wealth amassed in the world’s fifth- largest oil exporter has posed problems for successive governments in balancing spending demand and keeping the economy from overheating. No government has been re-elected since Norway started stashing its petroleum revenue in a fund in 1996.

Socialist Left

Within the ruling coalition, Finance Minister Kristin Halvorsen’s Socialist Left party may post the biggest decline from the 2005 election, gaining support of 6.1 percent in the Gallup poll, down from 8.8 percent in 2005. Labor has support of 32.9 percent, compared with 32.7 percent in 2005.

The coalition this year proposed spending 5.7 percentage points of the oil fund to help the economy, exceeding the 4 percent rule. The economy will grow 1 percent next year after contracting 1.4 percent in 2009, the Statistic Office estimates.

“I would like the government to use more of the savings to build up the infrastructure and do something with the health care system and elderly care,” said Frode Roestvang, who works at the Norwegian Labor and Welfare Administration and plans to vote for the Liberals. “We don’t use the money for the people who live in Norway.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Josiane Kremer in Oslo at Jkremer4@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 11, 2009 06:50 EDT