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SABMiller May Become a Bid Target, ING Analysts Say (Update1)

By Loveday Morris

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- SABMiller Plc, the world's third- largest brewer, may be bought and split up within three years, as more beer mergers are likely to follow InBev NV's unsolicited offer for Anheuser-Busch Cos., ING Groep NV analysts said.

ING's Gerard Rijk also said InBev may not scrap its bid for Anheuser should the Budweiser brewer succeed in its reported attempt to combine with Grupo Modelo SAB. The Mexican company's Corona brand would only make Anheuser more attractive, he said.

``InBev has probably triggered the last phase in global beer consolidation,'' Rijk wrote in an e-mailed note today. For InBev, Modelo is ``not a poison pill, it is a big opportunity. The spotlight will probably move to SABMiller'' if InBev succeeds in acquiring Anheuser, he wrote.

InBev bid $65 a share for Anheuser on June 11, a move that would create the world's largest brewer by sales volume and unite Budweiser with Stella Artois and 200 other brands. SAB has declined to comment on a Financial Times report in May that said it also held takeover talks with Leuven, Belgium-based InBev.

SAB spokesman Nigel Fairbrass and Inbev spokeswoman Rebecca Shelley both declined to comment on ING's note today.

Anheuser last night reiterated that it's still reviewing the $43.6 billion offer after InBev Chief Executive Officer Carlos Brito told the company not to pursue other transactions that might derail its proposal.

The Wall Street Journal said on June 12 that Anheuser contacted Modelo about a possible merger, a move some analysts say could make Anheuser too expensive for InBev.

SAB Breakup Scenario

SAB rose 36 pence, or 3.1 percent, to 1,195 pence in London trading. InBev, the world's largest brewer by sales, added 74 cents, or 1.6 percent, to 48.58 euros in Brussels.

SABMiller is probably vulnerable to a bid approach in coming years, since it has no controlling family or foundation to repel a bidder, as is the case with Heineken NV and Carlsberg A/S, the analyst said. SAB also ``lacks synergies'' between its different regions and its current ``haste'' to roll out premium brands is ``probably too late,'' Rijk said.

``We assume that in three years' time InBev/Anheuser-Busch, Heineken and Carlsberg will break up SABMiller,'' Rijk wrote. Such a deal would give InBev expansion potential in Africa, Rijk said. Heineken and Carlsberg are the largest brewers in the Netherlands and Denmark, respectively, and recently completed the purchase of Britain's Scottish & Newcastle Plc.

Separately, Belgium's De Standaard newspaper today said Anheuser shareholder Warren Buffett supports InBev's bid, without saying from whom it got the information. The U.S. billionaire owns about 5 percent of the stock. An e-mail to Jackie Wilson, a spokeswoman for Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc., sent before U.S. office hours wasn't immediately returned.

Buffett may recommend the Busch family consider discussions with InBev, the Guardian reported last weekend. Anheuser CEO August Busch IV is opposed to a sale and other family members and directors are split, the Wall Street Journal had previously reported, citing unidentified sources.

To contact the reporter on this story: Loveday Morris in London at lmorris7@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: June 17, 2008 12:15 EDT

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