Bloomberg Anywhere Bloomberg Professional About Bloomberg


S&P 500 May Rally Into Year-End, Goldman Sachs Says (Update1)

By Adam Haigh

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index for U.S. equities is poised for ``strong'' year-end rally from late November, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists wrote.

``Potential exists for a strong year-end rally, although it would not be the start of a new bull market,'' Goldman Sachs equity strategists led by David Kostin wrote in a note to clients today. The team also lowered their earnings per share estimates for companies in the S&P 500 for 2008 to $72 from $76 and for 2009 to $75 from $87.

The S&P 500 will ``trough in late November'' after four ``milestones'' have been met. These include the return of functioning short-term credit markets, the completion of the third-quarter earnings season and the U.S. presidential election. They also said funds may choose to close at year-end after the Nov. 15 deadline for providing advance notification on redemptions.

The broker's year-end 2008 fair-value for the S&P 500 equals 1,180 and its price target is 1,000, about 11 percent above the close on Oct. 10, according to the note.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in December added 5.4 percent to 939.5 as of 6:10 a.m. in New York, indicating the gauge will rebound from its 18 percent slide last week. This was the worst drop since 1933 as investors shrugged off an unprecedented coordinated effort by central banks led by the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs.

For Related News:

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 13, 2008 06:50 EDT

Sponsored links