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Chilean Peso Reaches 15-Month High; Colombia’s Currency Falls

By Nathan Gill

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Chile’s peso reached a 15-month high after a central bank survey said South America’s fifth-largest economy may post 4.4 percent growth next year.

The currency rose for a fifth day, gaining 1 percent to 507.45 per U.S. dollar at 2:31 p.m. New York time, from 512.50 yesterday, its strongest since Aug. 1, 2008. The peso has gained 9.3 percent in the last month, the best performer against the dollar among 26 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

“People are betting on Chile growing in 2010,” Diego Echenique, a trader with Larrain Vial SA in Santiago, said today in a telephone interview. “With internal demand growing strongly, this increases expectations of interest-rate hikes, which would directly affect the peso.”

Chile’s economy may grow 4.4 percent in 2010, according to a monthly central bank survey of economists, faster than the 4.3 percent forecast of last month. The economy will probably expand 2.1 percent in the last three months of this year, the survey said.

The yield for a basket of Chile’s 10-year peso bonds in inflation-linked currency units, called unidades de fomento, rose eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 3.09 percent, according to Bloomberg composite prices.

In Colombia, the peso fell 0.2 percent to 1,969.35 per U.S. dollar, from 1,966.34 yesterday. The currency declined as deteriorating relations with Venezuela further damaged cross- border trade, Julian Ramirez, head analyst at Bogota-based brokerage Proyectar Valores SA, said.

‘Temporary Issue’

“The negative side is the situation with Venezuela and that international commerce continues interrupted,” Ramirez said today in a telephone interview from Bogota. “The dispute is a temporary issue, it’s for the media and can’t be sustained.”

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Nov. 8 ordered military and civil militias to “prepare for war,” claiming a military agreement between Colombia and the U.S. is a direct threat to Venezuela. Colombia’s central bank Chief Jose Dario Uribe said today that exports to the neighboring country are likely to fall more than 20 percent this year.

The yield on Colombia’s 11 percent bonds due in July 2020 fell five basis points to 8.14 percent, according to Colombia’s stock exchange. Yields declined as traders lowered their inflation expectations following the central bank’s announcement today that prices would rise about 3 percent in 2010, down from last year’s highs of 7.9 percent, Ramirez said.

Argentina’s Peso

Argentina’s peso was little changed at 3.8161 per dollar from 3.8152 yesterday. The yield on the country’s inflation- linked peso bonds due in 2033 fell two basis points to 11.33 percent.

Peru’s sol gained 0.1 percent to 2.8855 per dollar, from 2.8870 yesterday. The yield on Peru’s 8.6 percent sol- denominated bond due August 2017 rose one basis point to 4.98 percent.

Venezuela’s bolivar rose 0.2 percent to 5.37 per dollar from 5.38 yesterday in unregulated parallel market trading, traders said. Venezuelans buy dollars in the parallel market when they can’t get government authorization to purchase them at the official exchange rate of 2.15 per dollar.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nathan Gill in Santiago at ngill4@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 10, 2009 14:56 EST

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