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Cognos Shares Surge on Speculation About Earnings, IBM Takeover

By Chris Fournier

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Cognos Inc. surged 5.2 percent after the Ottawa-based software maker said it would release earnings on Sept. 21, quelling speculation that the company may announce negative results.

``This addresses some of the concern about earnings,'' said Michael Huang, an analyst at ThinkEquity Partners in San Francisco. ``There's probably more of a comfort level now.''

The stock of Canada's biggest maker of business software also rose on continued speculation that IBM may be interested in acquiring the company, according to analysts.

``The recent share performance shows there's some credibility about a possible takeout,'' said Huang. ``IBM is one of the companies being talked about.''

A takeover of Cognos by IBM ``makes strategic sense,'' Mike Abramsky, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note published July 24. The shares have since jumped by a fifth.

Abramsky, who rates Cognos shares ``outperform,'' declined to comment on today's share-price move. Cognos spokesman Sean Reid didn't immediately return a call seeking comment, nor did IBM.

``Everyone in software is a takeover target these days,'' said David Shore, an analyst at Desjardins Securities Inc. in Toronto, who rates Cognos ``buy.'' Shore said the fact that the company today announced a release date for earnings ``usually means no bad news.''

Neither Abramsky nor Shore own Cognos shares.

Cognos shares rose C$1.86 to C$37.94 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The shares have fallen 6.4 percent this year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at Cfournier3@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 5, 2006 16:08 EDT

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