Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The global economic crisis has made it easier to halt the increase in greenhouse gases released by power plants, factories and cars through 2020, the International Energy Agency said in a revision of its forecasts from November.

Annual emissions from using energy may peak at 30.9 billion tons “just before” 2020, assuming nations adopt climate- protection measures, the Paris-based agency said today in a report presented to United Nations negotiators in Bangkok. That’s 4.9 percent less than the previous estimate of a 32.5 billion-ton peak in 2020 for the same scenario.

Slowing the accumulation of heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide, which scientists blame for climate change, is central to climate-protection talks this week in Thailand that are aimed at laying the groundwork for an international treaty.

“Governments should see that if we don’t make use of this very unique window of opportunity, it could cost them much more in the future,” Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA, said in an interview in Bangkok today. “The later we start, the more costly it will be and the less achievable it will be from an economic and political point of view.”

Global CO2 discharges may drop at a record pace of as much as 3 percent this year as the recession cuts demand for power, said the IEA, the energy adviser to 28 countries. That compared with an historical average of 3 percent annual growth.

Cleaner U.S.

The U.S., the second-biggest producer of greenhouse gases, may see the recession and a cleaner fuel mix in the electricity sector push U.S. carbon-dioxide emissions from coal, oil and natural gas 5.9 percent lower this year, the nation’s Energy Information Administration said today.

Two years of climate talks have stalled as developed nations wrangle over 2020 emission limits. Developing nations said they are waiting for richer countries, which are responsible for most of the gases put into the atmosphere over the last century, to cut their output first.

The United Nations is seeking this year to replace or extend the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, whose initial phase runs for the five years ending in 2012. That treaty includes caps on industrial nations requiring cuts of about 5 percent in greenhouse gases from 1990 levels.

The U.S. needs to cut carbon dioxide emissions from energy use by 18 percent as of 2020 from 2007 levels to protect the world’s climate, the IEA said. China, the world’s largest emitter, has set domestic targets that would reduce global emissions by 1 gigaton by 2020, or 26 percent of the amount needed to avoid the worst of climate change, the IEA said.

Binding Commitments

“This should put China at the forefront of fighting against climate change at the global level,” Birol told a press briefing in Bangkok.

Nations have yet to agree on the level of emission cuts that developed countries must take, potentially binding commitments from the developing world, or the level of aid from wealthier to poorer nations to help them adapt to global warming and develop clean-energy sources.

After the Bangkok talks, which last until Oct. 9, countries have another week in Barcelona in November before the December summit in Copenhagen. A successful deal would include financial incentives to change the course of energy investments, including subsidies, tax breaks and expanded carbon markets, Birol said.

“If Copenhagen provides a signal that you can make better money with an investment under sustainable energy applications, such as renewables, nuclear, carbon capture storage, more sustainable cars, this would give an impetus to energy investors to invest on those fronts,” he said.

‘Major Revolution’

Getting carbon out of power production and reducing the emissions intensity of manufacturing industries such as metals, chemicals, cement and paper will be “critical” to achieving the ambitious goal of a 50 percent reduction in global CO2 emissions by 2050, the IEA said Sept. 15. Industrial use accounts for about a third of global energy use and nearly 40 percent of all energy-related emissions, the IEA said.

A “major revolution” in the auto industry needs to take place to reduce the number of cars with internal combustion engines by 2030 to 40 percent of all vehicles from 95 percent now, Birol said. Governments must also boost zero-carbon emissions technologies like renewables, carbon-capture storage and nuclear power to 33 percent of the energy mix from 18 percent now, he said.

“We have to be more open to nuclear power,” Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA, told reporters in Bangkok today. The world needs 18 new nuclear power reactors every year to boost its proportion in the global energy mix to 18 percent by 2030, he said.

The cost of energy investments needed in the next 20 years is $10 trillion, a number that will rise by $500 billion for each year of delay, Birol said. The use of more energy efficient technology will save about $8.6 trillion in that time, he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok at dtenkate@bloomberg.netMathew Carr in London at m.carr@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 6, 2009 09:44 EDT