Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- If this year’s Oscar race were a movie, the audience might be snoring in their seats long before the best-picture winner is announced.

“Slumdog Millionaire” had a 90 percent chance of winning as of yesterday, making it the biggest favorite since 2002, according to Intrade.com, a Dublin-based Web site. If Intrade and other oddsmakers are right, Mickey Rourke, Kate Winslet and the late Heath Ledger will all win statuettes.

“We have never seen the markets so convinced,” said John Delaney, chief executive officer of Intrade.com, where players buy shares in a movie’s Oscar prospects.

The market’s confidence in the outcome shows up in the potential payoffs. At Ladbrokes PLC, the U.K.-based gambling parlor operator, “Slumdog” bettors yesterday had to risk $8 to win $1. To create an exciting show, Walt Disney Co.’s ABC hired film star and Tony winner Hugh Jackman as host in a shift away from comic emcees. Last year’s Oscars, with Jon Stewart, were the least-watched in 39 years, according to Nielsen Co.

The Oscars will be handed out by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences on Feb. 22 at the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles. The telecast will air at 8 p.m. New York time.

“Slumdog Millionaire” and its director Danny Boyle face little risk of being upset. The film about a young man’s rise from poverty in Mumbai has the best odds of winning best picture since “Chicago” took the award in 2002, according to Intrade.

Nate Silver, of the Web site Fivethirtyeight.com, puts the film’s prospects at 99 percent. It’s 99.7 percent certain Boyle will win best director, according to his forecast, published in the Feb. 15 issue of New York Magazine.

Winner Already

“Slumdog Millionaire” already has been honored by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the Directors Guild of America, the National Board of Review and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts.

The drama from News Corp.’s Fox Searchlight was made for about $15 million and had taken in $150.5 million worldwide as of Feb. 18, according to Box Office Mojo LLC. The movie has 10 Oscar nominations. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” leads with 13, including best picture and best actor for Brad Pitt.

Forecasters don’t always get it right. Last year, Cate Blanchett was a clear favorite on the Hollywood Stock Exchange, owned by the brokerage firm Cantor Fitzgerald LP, to win best supporting actress for playing Bob Dylan in “I’m Not There.” Instead, longshot Tilda Swinton won for “Michael Clayton.”

Hollywood Stock Exchange, where players buy shares with fake money, has a 92 percent success rate picking winners in the past three years, said Jeffrey Hartke, an analyst for the company.

Bet $50, Win $1

The shortest odds in the Oscars are bets on Ledger for his role as the Joker in the Warner Bros. film “The Dark Knight.” On Ladbrokes yesterdays, risk-takers could win $1 for every $50 they bet on the late actor, who died in January 2008 of an accidental drug overdose.

On the other hand, someone wanting to bet against Ledger can get 40-1 odds from Ladbrokes on Michael Shannon for his role as a mentally ill man in “Revolutionary Road.”

The odds on “The Wrestler” star Rourke for best actor are 1-2, and Ladbrokes offers 2-5 that Winslet will take the best actress Oscar for “The Reader,” a Holocaust drama. The race is closer on the Hollywood Stock Exchange. An option on Rourke was $13.45, compared with $11.63 for “Milk” star Sean Penn. A winning option is redeemed for $25.

The least certain category is best supporting actress. Ladbrokes lists Penelope Cruz in Woody Allen’s “Vicki Cristina Barcelona” as the 4-7 favorite. She’s a 60 percent favorite on Intrade. Silver picked “Benjamin Button” co-star Taraji P. Henson as a 51 percent favorite. Cruz was second with 25 percent. On the Hollywood Stock Exchange, an option on Cruz commanded the highest price, $10.46. Marisa Tomei of “The Wrestler” was second at $6.30.

Viewers shouldn’t rule out surprises this year, no matter how certain things appear, said John Avello, oddsmaker for Wynn Las Vegas, which doesn’t take bets on the Oscars.

“I’ve been in the business a long time and I’ve seen a lot of things happen,” he said in an interview. “There will be something of a shock in there somewhere.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael White in Los Angeles at mwhite@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 20, 2009 00:01 EST