By Tony C. Dreibus
April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat rose for the second straight day on forecasts for persistent dry conditions in parts of the Great Plains, where the U.S. winter crop is emerging from dormancy.
Parts of western Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle and West Texas had no rain in the past two weeks, National Weather Service data show. No precipitation is in the forecast for those areas for at least the next five days, Meteorlogix LLC said today. Wheat has more than doubled in the past year, partly because adverse weather hurt crops in 2007.
``The weather in the U.S. might be supportive,'' said William Bayer, a partner at PTI Securities in Chicago. ``The hard-wheat areas stayed dry.''
Wheat futures for July delivery rose 2 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $9.525 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Futures reached a record $13.495 on Feb. 27 on forecasts that global inventories will dwindle to the lowest in 30 years.
A freeze followed by excessive rain in 2007 hurt plants in the U.S., and drought curbed production in Canada and Australia. Investors are focusing on the winter crop that farmers will begin harvesting in June and the spring wheat set for planting next month.
Greg Soulje, chief meteorologist at This Week in Agribusiness in Schaumburg, Illinois, yesterday said a severe drought from Texas to North Dakota and into the southern Canadian Prairies threatens crops.
More Dry Weather
Dryness will expand into parts of the central Midwest from April through August, further curbing yields, Soulje said at a meeting with clients in Chicago.
Futures also rose on bets that the slump by almost $4 a from the record in February was overdone, Bayer of PTI Securities said.
``You can't experience a $4 move in a relatively short time without people taking a look at the market,'' he said. ``In the short term, we're oversold, and I suspect we're going to see prices rise.''
Global inventories may fall to 110.4 million metric tons in the year ending May 31, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report on March 11. U.S. stockpiles may plunge to 6.6 million tons, down 47 percent from a year earlier, the agency said.
Turkey said today it plans to buy 100,000 metric tons of wheat. Turkey began holding tenders last year for imports after a drought damaged the domestic crop, slashing output by 20 percent to 15 million tons, according to the Union of Turkish Agricultural Chambers.
``Demand is going to remain because people need to eat,'' Bayer said. ``We're on such a thin edge in terms of supply. It could disappear in a heartbeat. I don't see demand going away anytime soon.''
Wheat was the fourth-biggest U.S. crop in 2007, valued at $13.7 billion, behind corn, soybeans and hay, government data show.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tony C. Dreibus in Chicago at Tdreibus@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: April 3, 2008 15:27 EDT
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