Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Plc, the world's top iron-ore producers, may win smaller-than-expected price increases next year as the global credit crisis prompts steelmakers to cut output, analysts said.

Five of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News said they may trim their forecasts for annual iron-ore price rises next year of 15 percent to 30 percent. Three analysts plan to leave their estimates unchanged, and one said producers won't win any increase at all.

ArcelorMittal, the world's biggest steelmaker, said Sept. 17 it could cut output by 15 percent in Europe and the U.S. to support prices as growth slows. Banks are curbing new lending and companies are reining in spending plans after the collapse of mortgage markets led to $523 billion in bank losses and write- downs worldwide.

``The financial crisis and credit limitations will be the main factor now in the 2009 iron-ore contract negotiations,'' Pedro Galdi, a steel and mining analyst at Sao Paulo-based broker SLW Corretora, said in a telephone interview. SLW forecasts a rise of 25 percent next year, though producers may secure ``much lower'' increases if growth stagnates, he said.

Rio de Janeiro-based Vale, the world's largest iron-ore exporter, boosted prices by as much as 71 percent this year, while BHP and Rio Tinto scored gains of as much as 97 percent.

Falling Steel Prices

Iron ore climbed for a sixth straight year in 2008 and helped drive prices of steel used by builders and carmakers such as hot-rolled coil to $1,137.80 a metric ton on May 8 in the U.S., according to London-based Metal Bulletin. The price has since dropped 17 percent.

There is ``a real chance total iron-ore demand will lessen in the short run, but not to the extent that it entails an oversupply,'' said Rodrigo Ferraz, an analyst at Banco Brascan in Rio. He forecasts a 15 percent increase.

Vale may still have some leverage as freight rates fall, said Jayme Alves, a mining and steel analyst at Sao Paulo-based broker Spinelli SA. Vale was forced to offer a discount this year to compensate for higher costs to ship iron ore from Brazil to China, the biggest buyer of the raw material.

The Baltic Exchange's Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, has declined 58 percent since reaching a record on May 20.

Vale may be able to raise prices this year to make up for a smaller increase than its rivals in 2008, Alves said, adding that he doesn't think there ``will be increases across the board.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Diana Kinch in Rio de Janeiro dkinch1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 22, 2008 16:47 EDT