Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded above $81 a barrel in New York, poised for a fourth week of gains, on improved prospects for an economic recovery in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer.

Oil has advanced 4 percent this week as equities gained on better-than-estimated company earnings, boosting speculation that the worst recession since the 1930s is over. Prices also increased as the dollar declined against the euro this week, adding to the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

“On the economic recovery, it’s three steps forward one step back, an uneven recovery but the worst is over,” said Gordon Kwan, head of regional energy research at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong. “We are seeing more recovery in areas dedicated to exports to China. The structural trend for oil is still up.”

Crude oil for December delivery rose as much as 59 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $81.78 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $81.41 a barrel at 2:55 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract slipped 0.2 percent to settle at $81.19 a barrel. Futures have gained 83 percent this year.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has climbed 70 percent from a five-year low March 9 and is headed for its biggest annual increase since 2003, as earnings reports from Australia to Japan fanned speculation the economy is emerging from recession.

“As we enter the tail-end of the U.S. reporting season, you can look back and say that the report card was better than expected,” said Mark Pervan, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne.

Analyst Survey

Crude oil futures may fall next week on concern U.S. inventories are sufficient to meet weakening demand, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 36 analysts.

Eighteen analysts, or 50 percent, said oil will drop through Oct. 30. Twelve respondents, or 33 percent, forecast that the market will rise and six said prices will be little changed. Last week, analysts were split over whether prices would rise or fall.

U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose 1.31 million barrels to 339.1 million last week, the Energy Department said in a report Oct. 21. The gain left inventories 9.4 percent above the five- year average for the period. Fuel demand dropped 1.4 percent to an average of 18.7 million barrels a day during the week ended Oct. 16, the department said.

“For the sake of the bulls, this better turn out to indeed be one of the coldest winters of the decade,” Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania, said in a note.

Weaker Dollar

The dollar traded at $1.5020 per euro at 3:08 p.m. in Singapore, earlier touching $1.5060, the weakest since August 2008.

Oil declined yesterday on concern the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase production at a December meeting. OPEC may raise output to keep prices in a range of $75 to $80 a barrel, according to Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri. The 12-member group last agreed to increase supply targets in September 2007.

An increase in OPEC output will depend on whether prices remain at $75 to $80 a barrel, as well as stockpiles returning to their five-year average levels and the elimination of floating storage, El-Badri said yesterday in London.

OPEC, which pumps about 40 percent of the world’s crude oil, is scheduled to meet Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola.

Brent crude oil for December settlement rose as much as 64 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $80.15 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It traded at $79.83 a barrel at 2:54 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract declined 0.2 percent to settle at $79.51 a barrel.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ann Koh in Singapore at akoh15@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 23, 2009 03:11 EDT