July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Global demand for commodities may start to rebound from next year, ushering in the start of a new commodity cycle as government stimulus packages boost raw materials consumption worldwide, according to Morgan Stanley.

“We expect 2010 will mark the beginning of the recovery as the major central banks and their respective governments maintain the current unprecedented level of economic stimulus,” Morgan Stanley said today in a report. “This should provide the necessary stimulus to maintain the re-stocking phase of a new commodity cycle and eventually trigger an increase in self- sustaining demand growth.”

China, the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials, has boosted imports of copper, iron ore and aluminum this year, driven by the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package. The world economy may grow 2 percent next year from a contraction this year, the World Bank said last month.

“The early and major beneficiary of this anticipated recovery in base metals demand is expected to be copper, in our view, as low inventories and a range of longer-term constraints limit the risk of a strong supply response,” Morgan Stanley said. “Aluminum, alumina and zinc seem more bearishly vulnerable to supply-side risks.”

Commodity prices slumped the most in five decades last year as the global recession slashed demand. The “worst is over” for raw materials demand and the bottom of the price cycle for base metals, particularly copper, has been reached, Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty. analysts forecast in May.

Recent indicators showing global industrial demand is rebounding suggests 2009 will be, “the trough of the Great Recession,” Morgan Stanley said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 6, 2009 03:58 EDT