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China Says Inflation Probably Accelerated in February (Update1)

By Li Yanping and Wang Ying

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- China's inflation probably accelerated in February from an 11-year high in January as heavy snowstorms disrupted food and power supplies, according to the statistics agency.

China is still facing ``very big pressures'' to curb rising prices, National Bureau of Statistics director Xie Fuzhan told reporters today in Beijing, where he is attending the annual National People's Congress meeting.

Consumer prices jumped 7.1 percent in January from a year earlier, the biggest increase since 1996. China's Premier Wen Jiabao said March 5 the government must do more to rein in lending and curb inflation in the world's fastest-growing major economy, a sign the central bank may raise interest rates for the seventh time in a year.

The worst snowstorms in half a century in provinces such as Zhejiang, Guangxi and Jiangxi from mid-January closed factories, paralyzed transportation and disrupted food and power supplies.

``The impact of the snowstorms will last for another three to six months, and inflation may peak in February while staying at high levels in following months,'' said Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at the State Information Center in Beijing.

Consumer prices in China probably rose 7.9 percent last month from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 22 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. That would be the biggest gain since August 1996. The February inflation data is due to be released by the statistics bureau on March 11.

`Will Be Ugly'

``Chinese inflation will be ugly this week,'' Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong, said in a report yesterday. The central bank ``may respond by liquidity tightening.''

The People's Bank of China has ordered commercial lenders to set aside more deposits as reserves on 11 occasions since the start of last year, pushing the ratio to a record 15 percent. The benchmark one-year lending rate is 7.47 percent.

China is faced with the challenge of preventing its economy from overheating while ensuring that weaker global demand doesn't trigger a sharp slowdown. The government is aiming to cap inflation at 4.8 percent in 2008, the same pace as last year.

``Inflation in the first quarter may reach 8 percent as vegetable and pig supplies may remain short after the snowstorms destroyed crops and livestock,'' Zhu said.

The world's fourth-largest economy may grow 10 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, down from 11.4 percent in 2007.

To contact the reporters on this story: Li Yanping in Beijing at yli16@bloomberg.net; Wang Ying in Beijing at wang30@bloomberg.net;

Last Updated: March 8, 2008 04:25 EST

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