Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to climb significantly should a decline in China’s foreign-exchange reserves force the nation to scale back purchases of the securities, according to Fitch Ratings Ltd.

The New York Times reported yesterday that China is losing its appetite for debt from the U.S. and said this could have “painful effects for American borrowers.” Demand for Treasuries remains robust with investors shifting out of riskier assets, and yields on 10-year bills are close to historical lows, said James McCormack, the Hong Kong-based head of Asian sovereign ratings at Fitch.

“China is going to buy less Treasuries but only because foreign exchange accumulation is not going to be so large,” he said. “It’s not as though they are shying away from Treasuries and buying something else.”

China’s currency reserves, the world’s largest at about $1.9 trillion, recently fell for the first time in five years, Cai Qiusheng, who works for the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said last month. With less dollars flowing into the country, China’s need to buy U.S. debt is reduced.

The total amount of U.S. government debt outstanding rose to $10.7 trillion in November, from $9.15 trillion a year earlier, as the government bailed out financial companies. President-elect Barack Obama, who takes office on Jan. 20, is pressing Congress to approve an economic stimulus plan of about $775 billion over two years.

Global Recession

“The likely scale of China’s reduced purchases will not be enough to overwhelm other global factors that are pushing down rates,” said Brad Setser, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was recently at 2.50 percent, compared with an average 3.64 percent last year. It reached a record low of 2.0352 percent on Dec. 18 as recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan boosted demand for the safest assets.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte downplayed questions about potential conflict over how China handles its holdings of Treasuries while visiting Beijing today.

“My Chinese interlocutors pointed out that they have been very responsible in dealing with the question of the American debt that they do hold, and they want to be viewed as a reliable partner in that regard,” he told reporters at a press conference today in Beijing.

Deepening Crisis

Zhu Guangyao, the Chinese Assistant Finance Minister, said on Dec. 5. that China may continue to buy U.S. Treasuries to help stabilize the American financial system as the global financial crisis deepens.

The latest data shows China continues to have a strong appetite for U.S. debt. In September it passed Japan to become the largest overseas holder of Treasuries. China’s holdings of the securities increased $67.5 billion in October to $652.9 billion, according to Treasury Department data.

That level of purchases is probably unsustainable because China’s reserves growth has slowed, said Setser. Data on China’s foreign-exchange reserves at the end of December are scheduled for release next week.

The reserves may have declined due to “changes in valuations of assets, especially in euro-denominated assets,” Chinese central bank adviser Fan Gang said Jan. 6.

Euro’s Decline

The euro has fallen 18 percent against the U.S. dollar from its record high of 1.6038, touched on July 15.

China’s reserves may decline in the first half of 2009 as a pause in the yuan’s appreciation prompts speculators to pull money out of the country, Moody’s Economy.com said on Dec. 30.

Other factors that may slow growth in the reserves this year include a possible narrowing of the trade surplus and less foreign direct investment.

China’s trade surplus may have dropped to $34 billion in December, from a record of $40.09 billion in the previous month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 17 economists.

China should diversify its currency holdings away from Treasury bills because credit default swaps show they are “a relatively big risk,” former central bank adviser Yu Yongding said Dec. 12.

Such diversification is not easily executed, said Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai.

“We still have the same old problem,” he said. “There are not many other places to invest the money.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing at khamlin@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 8, 2009 06:54 EST