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GM, Ford, Chrysler May Lose More U.S. Sales to Toyota in 2007

By Greg Bensinger

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler, after losing money and U.S. market share in 2006, may face more of the same in 2007 as Toyota Motor Corp. chips away at their business.

The U.S.-based automakers were hurt by gasoline prices that topped $3 a gallon and a housing slowdown, which turned buyers away from the pickup trucks, sport-utility vehicles and minivans that account for a majority of their U.S. sales.

``The Big Three really focused their energy and resources on trucks and SUVs for the last decade at least, because that's where they could make big profits,'' said Dennis Virag, president of Automotive Consulting Group in Ann Arbor, Michigan. ``It's coming back to haunt them.''

Toyota and Honda Motor Co. have been winning U.S. market share with fuel-efficient models and a reputation for better quality. Losses and reduced sales have forced GM and Ford to buy out more than 70,000 factory workers and reduce production. Chrysler chief Tom LaSorda has said his company will reduce capacity after a $1.5 billion third-quarter loss.

Shares of GM have risen 58 percent this year, the most in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, on optimism that the Detroit- based company can end losses. Shares of Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford have fallen 2.8 percent. Stuttgart, Germany-based DaimlerChrysler's U.S. stock has gained 21 percent.

Market Share

GM, Ford and Chrysler held 55.2 percent of U.S. car and light-truck sales through November, dropping from 58.4 percent a year earlier, according to Autodata Corp. in Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey. Toyota had 15.3 percent, a gain of 2 percentage points, and Honda's share rose 0.5 point to 9.1 percent.

Toyota's gains may help it end GM's reign as the world's largest automaker during 2007. Through nine months this year, Toyota's global sales rose 8 percent to 6.61 million while GM's fell 2.5 percent to 6.89 million.

Ford is the third-biggest automaker after GM and Toyota. DaimlerChrysler is fifth largest.

The U.S. automakers also will have to contend with a home market where sales probably will drop to 16.3 million cars and light trucks from 16.5 million this year, said George Magliano, director of auto research at forecaster Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts.

This year, high fuel prices damped demand for trucks such as Ford's F-Series pickups, GM's Chevrolet TrailBlazer SUV and Chrysler's Jeep Grand Cherokee SUV. U.S. light-truck sales fell 5.6 percent through November, while sales of cars rose 1.2 percent. Total sales declined 2.5 percent.

Ford Cuts

Ford planned to build 22 percent fewer vehicles in North America this quarter and GM forecast a 13 percent cut. Chrysler has trimmed second-half output as much as 17 percent.

Lower sales and production, along with spending to cut jobs and close factories, contributed to net losses through three quarters of $6.99 billion at Ford and $3.03 billion at GM.

Ford borrowed $23.4 billion to brace for a $17 billion cash drain in the next three years as it buys out 38,000 U.S. factory workers and 10,000 salaried employees. The automaker, which hired former Boeing Co. executive Alan Mulally in September to replace William Clay Ford Jr. as chief executive, doesn't expect a North American automotive profit until 2009.

``The next couple of quarters are not going to be pretty,'' said Dan Poole, who helps manage $34 billion, including Ford shares, for National City Corp.

Ford's U.S. market share this year fell a percentage point to 17.6 percent, as its sales declined 7.6 percent.

General Motors

GM sold a majority of its finance unit last month, raising $7.4 billion to help fund CEO Rick Wagoner's restructuring plan that includes buyouts of 34,000 workers. Its U.S. market share dropped 1.5 points to 24.7 percent as sales fell 8.3 percent.

GM fended off a proposal made in June by billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian to form an alliance with Nissan Motor Co. and Renault SA. Kerkorian sold his 9.9 percent stake in GM after the company in October rejected his plan.

Wagoner still is negotiating financial aid for Delphi Corp., a former GM parts unit trying to exit bankruptcy.

``The job cuts, the asset sales, those were fairly obvious cost-saving measures by Wagoner, but the low-hanging fruit has been picked now,'' said Kevin Tynan, an Argus Research analyst in New York who rates GM shares a ``buy.''

Chrysler wants to trim costs by $1,000 a vehicle after its U.S. sales fell 7.7 percent through November. Light trucks such as the Dodge Ram pickup, Jeep SUVs and Chrysler Town & Country minivan account for more than 75 percent of its sales.

Share Drop

Through November, Chrysler's U.S. market share fell to 12.9 percent from 13.6 percent. The decline helped Toyota pass DaimlerChrysler as third largest in U.S. sales.

The U.S. automakers next year will negotiate with the United Auto Workers union to replace contracts that expire in September.

The companies probably will seek reduced wages and benefits such as health care, as well as changes to the ``jobs bank'' program that pays employees even when work isn't available, said Mark Oline, an analyst at Chicago-based Fitch Ratings.

``The talks with the UAW are expected to be contentious,'' he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Bensinger in New York at gbensinger1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: December 29, 2006 00:13 EST

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