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Democrats' Win May Delay U.S.-India Nuclear Deal, Analysts Say

By Bibhudatta Pradhan

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The Democrats' victory in the U.S. Congressional elections may delay Senate approval for a civilian nuclear agreement with India, although the accord is unlikely to be scuttled, analysts in New Delhi said today.

A large number of non-proliferation lobbies support the Democrats and may insist on further talks with India before the Senate approves the agreement, said Shashank, a former foreign secretary who uses only one name.

Failure to pass the measure in a short session after the elections would require new legislation to be introduced next year, delaying exports from nuclear-industry suppliers such as Fairfield, Connecticut-based General Electric Co. and Pittsburg- based Westinghouse Electric Co. Still, the agreement has bipartisan U.S. support, which should allow the measure to eventually go through, Shashank said.

``It isn't a political issue as far as India's relations with the U.S. are concerned,'' the former foreign secretary said in an interview.

The agreement to sell nuclear technology to India was approved by the House of Representatives in July and the Senate could take it up during the short ``lame-duck'' session after the elections. The agreement, one of President George W. Bush's key foreign-policy initiatives, helps India gain access to know- how and fuel for its civilian nuclear program in exchange for opening up some atomic plants to international inspection.

``There would not be any direct kind of impact that would be deemed to be negative because the India-U.S. nuclear deal has largely bipartisan support,'' C. Uday Bhaskar, an independent strategic analyst, said in New Delhi today.

`Hopeful'

The agreement was stalled in the Senate before the elections, during which the Democrats took control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in 12 years. They were two seats shy of the six needed for a majority in the Senate as races in Virginia and Montana remained in doubt.

Bhaskar is ``cautiously hopeful'' the legislation will get priority on the agenda of the session of the Senate next week.

The political atmosphere in such sessions is often unpredictable, according to Sarah Binder, a congressional expert at George Washington University in Washington. The Republicans and Democrats sparred Sept. 25 over how and when a vote on the legislation might occur and how much time to allow for debate.

``We have to keep our fingers crossed,'' said S. Chandrasekharan, director of South Asia Analysis Group, a non- profit political and strategic research organization. ``Democrats wouldn't like to give credit to President Bush for the nuclear deal.''

The agreement with India would expand U.S. ties to the most populous democracy and the second-fastest growing economy. The legislation, when passed, would exempt India from U.S. laws that bar nuclear technology transfers to countries that haven't fully submitted to international inspection.

U.S. critics of the plan, including some Democratic Senators, say the initiative leaves India's military program unchecked and would undermine international efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.

The U.S. barred nuclear exports to India after the South Asian nation tested an atomic bomb in 1974. India also tested nuclear devices in 1998.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bibhudatta Pradhan in New Delhi at bpradhan@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 8, 2006 05:19 EST

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