April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong rice prices may surge 30 percent in the next two months, an industry body said, as shoppers emptied supermarket shelves of the grain.

The price of imported rice from Thailand has already risen as much as 20 percent since January, said Lee Kwong-lam, president of Hong Kong and Kowloon Vermicelli and Noodle Manufacturing Industry Merchants. Prices are likely to jump a further 30 percent by June, he said.

``To be short of money is one thing, but running short of rice is a big deal for the Chinese,'' said Chip Tsao, a Hong Kong commentator and radio talk-show host. ``Chinese people have been living under the shadow of famine for so long. It's a throwback to Chinese history, going back 2,000 years.''

Consumers are beginning to feel the impact of surging food costs after global rice prices almost doubled in the past year. Exporters such as China, India and Vietnam are keeping more of their crops at home to help tame inflation and fend off potential social unrest, leaving import-dependent economies such as Hong Kong vulnerable.

``I'm afraid there won't be any rice to eat,'' Ms. Fung, a 32-year-old restaurant worker who declined to give her full name, said last night, as she looked at empty shelves in a Wellcome supermarket in the Kowloon area. ``I'd bought two bags before work. I wanted two more. Everyone is acting crazy -- like they're starving.''

Hong Kong's government this week moved to reassure the territory's 7 million people that rice stocks were sufficient. Prices of non-staple items such as pork and eggs have also surged, driving inflation to 6.3 percent in February, the fastest pace in more than a decade. Food accounted for almost half of that, according to government data.

No Worries

``There is no need for the public to worry,'' the Trade and Industry Department said in a statement late yesterday.

Rice suppliers are obliged to maintain 15 days of stocks in their warehouses and release these to stem any shortage, it said.

``Hong Kong people won't starve, they'll just have to pay more,'' said Anthony Lam, an operations director at Golden Resources Development International Ltd., a trader that imports about one-third of the rice the territory consumes.

The United Nations warned in February that 36 countries, including China, face food emergencies this year, as stockpiles of grains such as rice drop to a 26-year low.

Rice, the staple food for almost half the world's population, lags behind only wheat among the 36 raw materials on the Rogers International Commodity Index over the past year. Rice on the Chicago Board of Trade costs almost $20 per 100 pounds from about $10 a year ago.

``I wouldn't be surprised if retail prices rise 30 percent as import prices have risen more than 80 percent over the past year,'' Lam said, adding the company has already raised wholesale rice prices several times this year.

Thai Rice

More than 90 percent of Hong Kong's rice imports come from Thailand, the world's biggest exporter of the grain, government figures show. China, Vietnam, the U.S. and Australia make up most of the remainder.

Thai rice exports may fall 30 percent from this month because suppliers don't want to lock themselves into contracts with domestic prices set to rise further, Dow Jones reported, citing Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association. India and Vietnam, the next biggest exporters, this week announced curbs in overseas sales.

In India, the most populous country after China, the government cut import duties on edible oils and banned exports of most rice after inflation climbed to a 13-month high.

``Slowing inflation is a top priority,'' Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said in a statement this week. Inflation jumped to 19 percent this month, the fastest pace since July 1995. Food prices jumped 31 percent.

Still Trying

China's government also cut rice exports as consumer prices rose 8.7 percent in February, the fastest pace in 11 years.

``China has been trying to stabilize inflation, but food prices are still going up,'' said Henry Li, an analyst at Core Pacific-Yamaichi International in Hong Kong. ``Prices in China have room to rise because they are still lower than global norms.''

Premier Wen Jiabao said the government will ensure rice supplies to Hong Kong and Macau, both handed back to China by former European colonial powers in the 1990s, the South China Morning Post reported today.

``The more China says don't worry, the more you worry,'' said Tsao, the radio talk-show host.

To contact the reporter on this story: Theresa Tang in Hong Kong at ttang3@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 1, 2008 06:07 EDT