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Florida Is Favored to Win NCAA Tournament, Vegas Oddsmakers Say

By Erik Matuszewski

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- The University of Florida is favored by Las Vegas oddsmakers to become the first school in 15 years to successfully defend its championship at the National Collegiate Athletic Association men's basketball tournament.

The Gators, who returned all five starters from last year's championship team, are the top seed in the 65-team field. Florida is a 7-2 favorite to become the first school since Duke University in 1991-92 to win back-to-back titles, according to Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which advises Nevada sports books on betting lines.

Florida (29-5) is the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Regional and plays Southwest Athletic Conference champion Jackson State in a first-round game on March 16 in New Orleans. The tournament's other top regional seeds are North Carolina (28-6) in the East, Ohio State (30-3) in the South and Kansas (30-4) in the West.

North Carolina, which won the title in 2005, has 5-1 odds to win the championship, followed by UCLA at 7-1 and Ohio State, Kansas and Georgetown at 8-1. UCLA and Georgetown are both No. 2 seeds in the tournament field.

``A lot of this has to do with the public and how they back these teams,'' Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the Las Vegas Hilton Race & Sports Book, said in a telephone interview. ``These teams at the top are so popular year in and year out. They're powerhouses on the court and at the betting window.''

Long Road

The NCAA tournament starts tomorrow in Dayton, Ohio, with a play-in game between Niagara and Florida A&M, the lowest-rated teams in the field. All 32 first-round games are scheduled for March 15 and 16 at regional sites around the U.S.

The Final Four will be played in Atlanta, with the national semifinals on March 31 and the championship game on April 2.

If Florida beats Jackson State -- No. 1 seeds are 88-0 all- time against No. 16 seeds -- the Gators would play Arizona or Purdue in the second round. The other leading seeds in Florida's region are No. 2 Wisconsin, No. 3 Oregon and No. 4 Maryland.

Florida rebounded from losing three of its last five regular-season games by winning three straight in the Southeastern Conference tournament by an average of 19.7 points.

``When they had that losing streak, it almost seemed like they got a little bored,'' Sherman said. ```Now it looks like they've rounded into tournament form and are ready to go. They're the most talented team out there.''

Futures Trade

Futures traders have also made Florida the favorite.

Contracts that would pay $100 for a Florida title are trading for $18 at Dublin, Ireland-based TradeSports.com, the highest price among teams in the tournament. North Carolina is also the second choice at the online exchange, trading for $12.

The Tar Heels play Eastern Kentucky in the first round. North Carolina has the most difficult road to the Final Four, CBS college basketball analysts Jay Bilas and Billy Packer said. Big East champion Georgetown is the No. 2 seed and Texas, led by freshman Kevin Durant, in the fourth seed in the Tar Heels' region.

``You really wouldn't be surprised to see any of those teams win the championship,'' Packer said on a media conference call last night.

A No. 1 seed has won the NCAA tournament 10 of the past 15 years. Florida won as a No. 3 seed last year, when the Final Four didn't have a No. 1 seed for the first time since 1980.

No. 1 Missing

Odds are that at least one of the top seeds won't make it to Atlanta this year. There never has been a season when all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four.

Kansas has lost three straight NCAA tournament games. The Jayhawks were beaten by Bradley as a No. 4 seed last year and Bucknell as a No. 3 seed in 2005. The Big 12 tournament champions play March 16 in Chicago against the winner of the play-in game between Niagara and Florida A&M.

Big Ten winner Ohio State brings a 17-game winning streak into its tournament opener against Central Connecticut State on March 15 in Lexington, Kentucky. Two of the Buckeyes' three losses this season came against Florida and North Carolina.

``You can never forecast the gong game, when nothing goes right and you can't figure out why,'' said CBS analyst Clark Kellogg, a former All-Big Ten player at Ohio State. ``Nor can you forecast the perfect game. All those elements add to the excitement and fun of trying to figure this thing out. We're going to have an exciting three-week run.''

Nevada sports books will be especially productive during the first four full days of the tournament, when 48 first- and second-round games are played. The total amount bet on the NCAA tournament in Las Vegas ranks second among U.S. sporting events behind only the National Football League's Super Bowl.

To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Matuszewski in New York at matuszewski@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 12, 2007 00:31 EDT

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