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Palin’s Future Might Require ‘Pygmalion Project’ (Update1)

By Heidi Przybyla

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Sarah Palin is trying for a second chance at a first impression.

The 2008 Republican vice presidential candidate and former Alaska governor has blitzed back into the spotlight with a promotional tour for her memoir, “Going Rogue: An American Life,” that may mark the first steps of a political comeback.

She has done interviews with Oprah Winfrey and Barbara Walters, and the autobiography ranks No. 1 in sales on Amazon.com. The success of the book provides a measure of her potential for a comeback.

Palin, 45, has also demonstrated her ability to connect with grassroots activists in her party who play an outsize role in the presidential-nominating process.

So far, that hasn’t translated into broader appeal: 60 percent of Americans say they believe Palin isn’t qualified to be president, a Nov. 12-15 ABC News/Washington Post poll found. Still, she hasn’t ruled out a run for the White House in 2012.

“That certainly isn’t on my radar screen right now,” Palin told Walters. “When you consider some of the ordinary turning into extraordinary events that have happened in my life, I am not one to predict what will happen in a few years.”

Since her book tour began this week, wagers on Intrade.com set her prospects of winning the Republican nomination at 22 percent, just behind former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

‘Everyday Americans’

In the interviews, Palin said she and her family represent a counterweight to the Washington elite, who don’t understand the concerns of “everyday Americans.”

No U.S. president has hailed from Alaska, which is better known for its Trans-Alaska Pipeline System and oil companies with operations there such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips. Her husband, Todd, worked for oil company BP Plc on the state’s North Slope.

There are precedents for a comeback. Ronald Reagan became president after losing the Republican nomination in 1976. Richard Nixon returned to public life after losing his 1960 presidential campaign and his bid for California governor in 1962, when he told reporters, “You won’t have Nixon to kick around anymore.”

Much like Reagan, Palin’s support comes from the grassroots and not Republican political leaders in Washington.

Redeeming Herself

“She’s not going to drive that bus through Washington,” said Tucker Eskew, a counselor to Palin during the campaign. “It’ll go through suburban Florida and Midwestern heartland villages and a lot of Web sites.”

Calls to Palin’s political action committee weren’t immediately returned.

Nationally, the Post poll shows 43 percent of Americans view Palin favorably, compared with 52 percent who regard her unfavorably.

“She wants to redeem herself, but it’s still an open question whether she wants to reinvent herself as a presidential candidate” like Reagan, said Bruce Buchanan, a presidential historian at the University of Texas in Austin.

Activists such as the Tea Party Patriots, who identify with Palin’s limited-government philosophy, and Smart Girl Politics, a group that promotes politically conservative women, could be at the core of any Palin rebound.

Taking in Cash

Her ability to raise money will also be key: Palin’s political action committee took in $732,868 in its first six months and had $456,667 in the bank at the end of June, Federal Election Commission reports show.

She scored a $1.25 million advance for her memoir, according to a disclosure statement. The book is more personal than political, delving into her teenage daughter’s pregnancy, her special-needs child with Down syndrome and her life in Alaska. She also criticizes members of 2008 Republican presidential candidate John McCain’s team.

Much of Washington’s Republican “establishment” remains skeptical, said Ed Goeas, a former adviser to McCain.

“There’s a certain amount of elitism in this town,” he said. “Most of middle America did not go to an Ivy League school and they work hard and play by the rules: Those are the people that she connected with.”

Francisco Gonzalez, the lead organizer of an anti-big government Tea Party protest in Tallahassee, Florida, said Palin’s popularity in the grassroots “is very strong.”

Book Signings

Palin has had book signings so far in Michigan and Indiana. Still, most Republicans said it isn’t clear whether that prominence will provide enough strength for Palin to make a run at the presidency.

Her book’s popularity won’t be enough to recast her image, said Ron Kaufman, a former senior adviser to 2008 Republican presidential candidate Romney.

“Once you’re painted into the picture fairly or, mostly unfairly, changing that perception is the hardest thing to do,” Kaufman said.

Nixon is an exception. In 1968, he positioned himself to lead the party to victory as rising opposition to the Vietnam War led President Lyndon Johnson to give up a bid for re- election.

Buchanan said Palin is unlikely to ride to the top of the ticket on the current administration’s woes and her grassroots support alone.

“She would have to be somebody’s Pygmalion project,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Heidi Przybyla at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 20, 2009 06:51 EST