By Grant Smith
June 19 (Bloomberg) -- The two-month rally in crude oil is threatened by the “high wave” configuration formed by prices yesterday, according to FuturesTechs.com Ltd.
A “high wave” pattern occurs on a candlestick chart when the opening and closing price are nearly the same, leaving only a slim horizontal band representing that session’s movement. It shows that a market’s gains have lost momentum, FuturesTechs said. The difference between the opening and settlement prices for Brent futures in London was 55 cents a barrel.
“This is the third small-bodied candlestick in as many days, and proves, if we needed proof, that things have got a bit neutral all of a sudden,” FuturesTechs director Clive Lambert said in a report today. “This poses the biggest threat to the bulls, who may be running out of steam.”
Brent crude futures on the ICE Futures Europe exchange have surged 48 percent since April 27 and last traded for $71.80 a barrel as of 12.26 p.m. London time.
“If we break through $71.10, that would confirm our fears that we’re seeing a top,” Lambert, based in Southend-on-Sea, U.K., added in telephone interview.
Barclays Capital also said that, from a technical point of view, oil prices appear vulnerable to correction lower in the short-term.
“The market is likely to pull back further towards trendline support near $67.65 a barrel,” Barclays analysts including Dhiren Sarin wrote in a report today. “The uptrend is not primed to resume yet.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 19, 2009 08:11 EDT
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