Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, the producer of 40 percent of the world's oil, cut its forecast for 2007 supply from non- members mainly because of delays at North American projects and left its world demand estimate ``broadly unchanged.''

Countries outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are expected to pump 50.7 million barrels a day this year, OPEC's Vienna-based secretariat said in its Monthly Oil Market Report. That's 173,000 barrels a day less than its previous forecast, OPEC said, citing delays such as the BP Plc-operated Atlantis project in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

``The revision is principally due to lower supply expectations for Mexico, U.S. and Canada,'' OPEC said today. While mild weather could reduce world demand, ``the weaker-than- expected performance in non-OPEC supply, due to project delays and unexpected output declines, may be sufficient to offset the decline in the forecast demand.''

OPEC has announced a total of 1.7 million barrels a day worth of supply cutbacks, which started in two stages on Nov. 1 and Feb. 1. Oil prices fell to about $50 a barrel a month ago, weakened by mild U.S. and European weather, and have since recovered to trade near $58 a barrel today in New York.

``For the second consecutive year, warm weather in the key regions has dented world oil consumption during its usual upward winter cycle,'' the report said.

The so-called OPEC basket price, an average of crude oils from its member nations, fetched $53.70 yesterday, after falling as low as $47.92 on Jan. 17.

$50 `Floor'

Manouchehr Takin, senior analyst at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London, said in an interview today that OPEC members are likely to defend OPEC basket prices at a minimum ``floor'' level of $50 a barrel. OPEC abandoned official price targets several years ago.

OPEC expects world oil demand to average 85.37 million barrels a day this year, ``broadly unchanged'' from its previous estimate of 85.39 million. Consumption will be 1.24 million barrels a day, or 1.5 percent, higher than in 2006.

Two days ago, the International Energy Agency, which advises 26 consuming countries, upped its estimate for this year's world demand growth to 1.8 percent by raising its 2007 global consumption forecast by 270,000 barrels a day to 86.04 million.

In its report today, OPEC calculated the quantity of OPEC crude oil needed to balance world supply and demand at 30.25 million barrels a day for all of 2007, and 29.2 million barrels a day for the second quarter, when demand is typically lowest.

The 2007 estimate, known as the ``call on OPEC,'' was about 160,000 barrels a day higher than last month's report as a result of the reduced estimates for non-OPEC supply.

OPEC Production Falling

OPEC crude oil production from all 12 members averaged 29.97 million barrels a day in January, down 273,200 barrels a day from December, the OPEC report said, citing an average of ``secondary sources,'' which includes production estimates from analysts and news agencies. Production fell 90,000 barrels a day in December.

Angola joined OPEC this year and pumped 1.51 million barrels a day last month, the survey showed.

OPEC's supply cutbacks, agreed at meetings in Doha, Qatar, in October and Abuja, Nigeria, late last year, were aimed at avoiding a post-winter supply glut and price collapse.

The cuts have led to oil-inventory declines in major consuming countries, OPEC said, adding that ``even with these cuts, there is a broadly shared view that the market continues to be well-supplied with crude stocks above year-ago and five-year averages, and U.S. gasoline supplies at a seven-year high.''

No Further Action

OPEC's director of energy research, Hasan Qabazard, said in a Feb. 12 interview in London that the group hopes to have ``100 percent compliance'' with supply cuts by the second quarter.

``I believe prices will stay where they are, or maybe a few dollars lower in the second quarter, so I don't see any further OPEC action in the coming months,'' Qabazard said.

OPEC members will meet next on March 15 in Vienna.

``When the OPEC Ministers reconvene in March, the full effects of the Doha and Abuja decisions will be more evident, providing a timely opportunity to review market conditions,'' today's OPEC report said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Voss in London at sev@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 15, 2007 10:06 EST