July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall on speculation that U.S. fuel inventories will climb as the recession curbs demand in the world’s biggest energy-consuming country.

Eighteen of 37 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 49 percent, said futures will decline through July 10. Nine respondents, or 24 percent, said the market will be little changed and 10, or 27 percent, forecast that oil prices will rise. Last week, 55 percent of analysts said prices would drop.

U.S. gasoline stockpiles climbed 2.33 million barrels to 211.2 million last week, an Energy Department report on July 1 showed. Inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes diesel and heating oil, climbed 2.9 million barrels to 155 million, the highest since 1987.

“Refiners continue to operate at healthy rates, product inventories are rising and the market will soon focus on distillate,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.

Total daily fuel demand averaged over the four weeks ended June 26 was down 5.8 percent from a year earlier, the Energy Department said. Distillate-fuel demand over the period fell 9.4 percent to 3.4 million barrels a day.

Crude oil for August delivery fell $2.43, or 3.5 percent, to $66.73 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 50 percent this year.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.

     Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:


                    RISE      NEUTRAL    FALL
                     10          9        18

To contact the reporter on this story: Jenny Gross in New York at Jgross15@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: July 3, 2009 00:09 EDT