Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is set to reach $91 a barrel in New York after breaking through its four-month trading range and 200-week moving average, according to technical analysis by Barclays Capital.

Crude is poised to close above its 200-week mean for a third week after staying below this level for the past year. The commodity has also breached a range roughly between $60 and $76 that held from June to October, the bank said. This creates the potential to form a new range of similar size that may take prices in a “measured move” up to $91 a barrel, Barclays said.

“The breakout of that range gives an upside target to the $91 area,” Barclays analyst MacNeil Curry said in a telephone interview from New York.

Oil for December delivery traded at $80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 8 a.m. London time, above its 200- week moving average of $75.35. The last time the commodity held above this average was Oct. 10, 2008.

On Sept. 14, Barclays analysts correctly predicted that crude had found a floor near $67 to $68 a barrel, and might rebound. Since then, oil has fallen no lower than $65.05 and rose to a one-year high of $82 a barrel on Oct. 21.

Another sign that oil is poised to rise further is the formation of a “bullish flag” on Nov. 3, when prices dropped to the top of their previous trading range at around $76.55 a barrel before rebounding, Curry added.

“This indicates consolidation ahead of the resumption of the prevailing trend, and is supportive of upside in the near- term,” said Curry.

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 6, 2009 03:20 EST