Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of shipping Middle East crude to Asia, the world's busiest market for supertankers, may fall for a sixth day, a sign some shipowners believe OPEC will renege on a pledge to boost crude oil production next month.

OPEC could export ``fewer cargoes'' because U.S. crude oil stockpiles are ``higher than we expected,'' said Tim Coffin, head of research at London-based Capital Shipbrokers Ltd. With tanker supply outnumbering cargo demand, some owners may not be prepared to risk waiting, he added.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier of 40 percent of the world's crude, said Sept. 11 it will boost output by 500,000 barrels a day from November. Shipowners leave their ships empty and refuse to lease them to oil companies when they believe increased demand will be enough boost hire rates.

PTT Pcl, Thailand's biggest energy company, hired the tanker C. Emperor at a rate of 60 Worldscale points, according to a report today from Oslo-based shipbroker PF Bassoe A/S. That's 2.2 percent above the London-based Baltic Exchange's benchmark rate of 58.70 Worldscale points for voyages to Asia.

C. Emperor cost more to hire than the benchmark because it's fitted with two hulls to cut the risk of an oil spill. Single-hull tankers, currently trading at around 55 Worldscale points, according to Coffin, are also included in the assessment.

Worldscale points are a percentage of a nominal rate, or flat rate, for more than 320,000 specific routes. Flat rates for every voyage, quoted in U.S. dollars a ton, are revised annually by the Worldscale Association in London to reflect changing fuel costs, port tariffs and exchange rates.

Break Even

Each flat rate assessment gives owners and oil companies a starting point for negotiating hire rates without having to calculate the value of each deal from scratch.

At 58.70 Worldscale points, owners of double-hulled VLCCs can earn about $25,874 a day on a 38-day round trip from Saudi Arabia to South Korea, based on a formula by R.S. Platou, an Oslo-based shipbroker, and Bloomberg bunker prices.

Frontline Ltd., the world's biggest VLCC operator, said Aug. 22 it needs $30,000 a day to break even on each of its supertankers.

Bookings for VLCCs sailing from the Middle East to Asia account for 47 percent of global demand for the carriers, according to New York-based McQuilling Brokerage Partners LLP. Shipments to the U.S. and Caribbean, the second-biggest market, account for 14 percent of demand for supertankers.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alaric Nightingale in London at Anightingal1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 4, 2007 07:04 EDT