Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier of more than 40 percent of the world’s oil, said demand will fall next year as the global economy contracts, cutting fuel consumption.

The 13-member group forecasts that world oil demand in 2009 will decline by 150,000 barrels a day, or 0.2 percent, to 85.68 million barrels a day, according to a monthly report released today. That’s 1 million barrels a day lower than forecast last month, and the fourth consecutive cut in its estimate.

“The sharp acceleration of the financial crisis since mid- September and spreading consequences across the globe have more than offset the impact of lower prices on oil demand growth,” OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat said today. “Should the world economic situation show further deterioration and the winter prove to be warmer than expected, then oil demand might show a further decline.”

OPEC ministers are planning to reduce production for the second time this year in an attempt to end a 70 percent slump in prices from a record $147.27 reached in July. Oil’s $100- collapse has cut export revenues for OPEC members, causing budget shortfalls and increasing pressure on the group to limit supplies.

Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez today said the group will reduce supplies by at least 1 million barrels a day when it meets tomorrow in Oran, Algeria. A 1.5 million barrel-a-day reduction announced in October failed to stop prices falling as low as $40.50 on Dec. 5.

‘Higher Overhang’

“The growing imbalance in the oil market over the coming quarters will lead to a much higher overhang in inventories as the global recession deepens,” the OPEC secretariat said. This “will be the main focus of the discussion at the ministerial meeting in Oran.”

The group forecasts that 2008 demand will shrink 70,000 barrels a day, or 0.1 percent, to 85.83 million barrels a day. Last month, it estimated that demand would increase by 0.3 percent this year.

The decline in demand next year will be driven by a “huge” reduction in consumption in developed economies, OPEC said. Oil consumption in developing countries will still increase 1.8 percent to 25.52 million barrels a day next year, it said.

The group lowered the demand forecast for its own crude in 2009 by 700,000 barrels a day, or 2.3 percent, to 30.22 million barrels a day. In 2008, demand for OPEC crude is predicted to be 31.63 million barrels a day, 210,000 barrels lower than it forecast last month.

Supply Forecast

OPEC cut its forecast for oil supply from outside the group by 170,000 barrels a day to 50.22 million barrels a day. Last month it forecast 2009 non-OPEC supply at 50.39 million barrels a day.

Total OPEC crude production averaged 31.102 million barrels a day in November, a decline of 739,700 barrels a day from October, the report said, citing secondary-source estimates that include analysts and news agencies.

Saudi output fell by 392,100 barrels a day in November to 8.797 million barrels a day, according to the report. Angolan and Iraqi production rose.

OPEC’s 13 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Indonesia will leave the group on Jan. 1.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: December 16, 2008 07:41 EST