By Greg Walters
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- A ``significant'' reduction in OPEC's oil production may drive the average price of crude back above $80 a barrel next year, aiding the Russian economy, according to OAO Lukoil.
Russia should support any decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut output, Leonid Fedun, deputy chief executive officer of the country's largest non-state producer, said today in an interview broadcast by Vesti-24.
``I hope that a decision will be taken to reduce oil output on Nov. 29,'' he said, referring to a scheduled OPEC meeting in Egypt.
Oil above $80 a barrel would be a ``great benefit'' for the economy of the world's second-largest crude exporter and would provide ``considerable support'' for domestic companies, Fedun said. Russia's 2009 spending plans are based on a forecast of $95 a barrel of Urals and the budget will avoid going into a deficit should crude stay above $70 a barrel.
Crude oil fell for a fourth day today in New York, dropping 2 percent to $53.30 a barrel, its lowest in 22 months. Urals crude, Russia's export blend, traded down 1.6 percent at $46.99.
Russia should consider becoming OPEC's 14th member country, Fedun said on Oct. 29. The group accounts for more than 40 percent of the global oil output and is also scheduled to meet in Oran, Algeria, on Dec. 17.
Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Nov. 8 that the government intends to pursue an ``independent'' strategy on oil production and ignore OPEC's moves to cut output.
Russian oil companies, which are currently losing money on oil exports after prices plunged, may swing to profit when Russia cuts the export duty on crude oil exports by 33 percent next month.
``Before today, a ton of exported oil made a loss of $40 a ton,'' as the tax was calculated based on the price of $80 a barrel, Fedun said. ``We'll come back to normal from Dec.1, we'll make profit. It's just a few dollars, but it will be a profit.''
Officials are considering lowering the duty to $192.10 a metric ton ($26.21 a barrel), Alexander Sakovich, deputy head of the Finance Ministry's customs department, said Nov. 17. The current duty is $287.30 a ton.
-- With reporting by Maria Kolesnikova in Moscow. Editors: Mark Sweetman, Will Kennedy.
To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Walters in Moscow gwalters1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 19, 2008 13:31 EST
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