Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. gasoline pump prices may fall below $3 a gallon for the first time in almost a year because of declining crude oil costs and collapsing demand.

Retail prices may fall as low as $2.70 a gallon by the end of November from about $3.50 a gallon on average nationwide now, said Dominick Chirichella, a senior partner at the Energy Management Institute in New York, a consulting company. U.S. gasoline demand is the lowest since September 2005, and the number of miles driven by Americans this year may fall for the first time since 1980, according to the Federal Highway Administration.

Crude oil tumbled 40 percent from its July 11 record of $147.27 a barrel as the U.S. credit crisis deepened. U.S. gasoline slid just 15 percent in that time, as hurricanes Gustav and Ike shut Gulf Coast refineries and inventories fell to a 41-year low of 179 million barrels, government data show. All refineries but two have returned to service, a sign supplies will increase.

``Retail prices will come down as cheaper gas starts trickling through the system,'' said Sander Cohan, a consultant with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts.

Gasoline futures fell 7.6 percent yesterday to $2.0591 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 43 percent from the record high of $3.631 on July 11. November crude oil declined 6.5 percent to $87.81 a barrel. Gasoline and crude oil have a 97 percent correlation, with 100 percent meaning they move completely in tandem, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Regular gasoline at the pump, averaged nationwide, fell 2 cents to $3.504 a gallon, AAA, the nation's biggest motoring group, said yesterday on its Web site. That is the lowest since April 20. The price peaked at $4.114 a gallon on July 17.

Production Loss

Record retail prices have helped drive down demand, which in the week ended Sept. 26 was the lowest since Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in 2005.

``The retail margins are suddenly astronomical and the big box retailers like Costco and big chains like Road Runner are going to lead the market down'' by cutting fuel prices, Chirichella said.

The Energy Information Administration will lower its gasoline price projections in its monthly forecast today, said Doug MacIntyre, senior oil market analyst. The department forecast Sept. 9 that regular gasoline would average $3.66 a gallon in October, $3.71 in November and $3.74 in December.

The new projection, while lower, won't reflect the recent decline in gasoline futures, because the market has fallen too quickly to be reflected in a monthly forecast, he said.

``How low prices may go is still an open question,'' MacIntyre said. ``If we've learned anything about forecasting prices this year, you probably should never use the phrase `far fetched' about any projection.''

Shortages Ease

The U.S. lost 20 percent of production from Hurricane Ike, which struck the Texas coast Sept. 13 less than two weeks after Hurricane Gustav made landfall in Louisiana. Fourteen refineries representing 3.8 million barrels of daily production were closed. Two of 32 Gulf Coast refineries remain shut and nine others are at reduced rates.

Spot shortages of gasoline from Texas to Ohio after Hurricane Ike kept a floor under prices. Those shortages are easing as refineries resume production.

``But it's not like consumers are just going to hop back into their cars now as prices fall, because they've got all these other issues with the financial system in turmoil,'' said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC, a consulting company based in Houston. Within the next two weeks, gasoline will be at $3.30 before declining to $3 a gallon a month later, Lipow said.

To be sure, crude oil is more expensive than gasoline for delivery in the next four months, meaning refiners risk losing money on every gallon they make. November crude on the Nymex costs $2.14 a gallon, while gasoline futures sell for $2.09.

Prices will also drop because winter-grade gasoline is 10 cents a gallon cheaper to produce, and as motor fuel demand slides because of the colder temperatures and the deteriorating economy.

``Supply anxiety was keeping a floor under prices, and once those anxieties subside, we're back to downward pressure from slow demand, and prices will continue to fall,'' Cohan said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Barbara Powell in Dallas at Bpowell4@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 7, 2008 04:51 EDT