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Obama Counts on Boosting Voter Turnout in Republican States

By Kristin Jensen and Julianna Goldman


Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Four years ago, Ralph Bresler, a Democratic county chairman in southeast Virginia, had to pay a college student to go to a nearby party office to get a list of registered voters he could use to target supporters of presidential candidate John Kerry.

That approach yielded ``very few results,'' Bresler said, and Massachusetts Senator Kerry lost James City County by almost 23 points.

This year, Democratic nominee Barack Obama has an office in nearby Williamsburg, one of eight in the Hampton Roads area. Across the state, Obama and the Democratic National Committee have a combined 69 offices, compared with 20 for Republican John McCain and his party.

Obama's supporters are armed not only with voter lists but with detailed ``walk sheets'' containing people's views on specific issues. They have reached most of the neighborhoods in James City County and registered thousands of new voters in the effort to beat McCain in Virginia, which hasn't been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964.

``If you had told me a year ago that Obama would have an office in Williamsburg, I would have told you you had been drinking too much,'' said Bresler, 65.

Leading in Virginia

Going into last night's debate, the final one before the Nov. 4 election, Illinois Senator Obama was running slightly ahead in Virginia: A Rasmussen poll last week showed the Democrat leading 50-48; other polls show a wider lead. Now, he needs to ensure he can translate that edge into votes.

That means boosting turnout, a feat Democrats haven't sufficiently pulled off in the last two elections. This time, Obama has built the party's strongest get-out-the-vote operation in decades, said Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University in Washington.

``It's the best thing that's going right now,'' Gans said.

To be sure, Gans said it was only the best operation overall since President George W. Bush's in 2004, when strategist Karl Rove crafted a program that allowed Republicans to target voters. The Bush campaign also had supporters reach out to others in their community, a model Obama is emulating this year.

``People who come to the door are authentic, enthusiastic and can immediately strike up a rapport,'' Donald Green, director of the Institution for Social and Policy Studies at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut. Now, ``both sides are on top of the idea.''

Across the U.S.

The Obama campaign is replicating this tactic in swing states and Republican areas across the U.S.

Cheryl Hibbeler, 54, took a sabbatical from her job as a customer-service representative last year to work for the Democrats in Missouri. She now spends 40 to 60 hours a week at an Obama office in St. Peters and on two local campaigns.

In her St. Charles County, which encompasses suburban St. Louis and went for Bush by almost 18 percentage points in 2004, Obama's campaign has registered about 11,000 new voters. Those and other supporters or possible supporters ``are going to hear from us two, three, four, five, six times,'' between now and Election Day, Hibbeler said.

Bill James, a 65-year-old retired electrical engineer in Nevada, told a similar story. He said he had canvassed for Obama near his home in Henderson several times, and in much more effective ways than when he worked for Kerry four years ago.

Kerry Campaign

``With Kerry they would just say `work these streets and put stuff up on every door,''' James said. By contrast, the Obama campaign provided a spreadsheet identifying only those homeowners who would be open to voting for the candidate.

On college campuses, the Democrats are even offering to drive students to their home districts to vote. They are also allowing voters to set up ride-sharing groups on the campaign's Web site.

``The get-out-the-vote phase will be decisive,'' Green said, because a strong voter-mobilization effort can make a difference of up to 3 percentage points in a tight contest.

The Republicans aren't sitting by idly, and said their get- out-the-vote efforts have only improved since 2004. They are using phone technology that connects directly to a database that comes up with specific questions to ask. In a recent three-week period, volunteers made 40 percent more contacts with voters than they did at the same time in 2004.

`More Surgical'

Mike DuHaime, McCain's political director, said the Obama campaign had registered an impressive number of new voters, but the Republicans are ``probably more surgical about who we register.''

The Obama campaign, however, has more money than past Democratic candidates, having out-raised McCain by a better than a 2-to-1 margin, allowing the Democrat to compete in traditionally Republican states such as Virginia.

Such organizing ``hasn't been done on a presidential level in 44 years,'' said Mitch Stewart, Obama's Virginia director.

Northern Loudoun County -- near Washington and one of the country's wealthiest counties -- supported Bush by 12 points in 2004. Arizona Senator McCain, 72, didn't have an office there until last month; Obama, 47, has two.

This past weekend, Obama's main office in Leesburg was bustling; 20 people were making phone calls and entering data. By comparison, there were just a few volunteers in McCain's Sterling office; three were making calls.

`Challenging Year'

``This is a challenging year for Republicans,'' Loudoun County Republican Party chairman Glen Caroline said. Still, he said that he believes his county leans Republican and his volunteers started earlier with better targeting. ``We have scores of people knocking on hundreds of doors.''

The Obama campaign is confident that 80 percent of the voters it registered will support their candidate, and that 75 percent will vote, a rate based on primary turnout.

To get that result, the campaign doesn't hesitate to wheel out its biggest gun. At an Oct. 10 training session in Columbus, Ohio, for about 750 volunteers, the candidate himself showed up to offer encouragement.

``Let's see how this baby runs,'' he said of his grassroots organization. ``Your voice can change the world.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Kristin Jensen in Washington at kjensen@bloomberg.net; Julianna Goldman in Ohio at jgoldman6@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 16, 2008 00:01 EDT

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