June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama, a black politician from Chicago's South Side, may win a larger share of the rural vote for president than Democrats have in past elections. The reason: Republican John McCain's opposition to agricultural interests.

``Not voting for the farm bill is not a good thing in North Dakota,'' Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer, a two-term Republican governor of the state, said in an interview after Congress passed the legislation, which includes crop subsidies, over the Arizona senator's opposition. ``Politically, it's a problem McCain will have to deal with as the campaign unfolds.''

Rural voters -- 20 percent of the electorate, according to the Center for Rural Strategies, a nonpartisan group in Whitesburg, Kentucky -- can make the difference in close national campaigns.

In 2004, President George W. Bush's 59 percent of the rural vote -- people living outside metropolitan areas with more than 50,000 population -- helped him become the first Republican to carry Iowa in 20 years; in Ohio, whose 20 electoral votes put him over the top, he won rural areas by 149,469 votes, which exceeded his statewide margin of 136,221.

``A lot of electoral votes may be swayed by the rural vote,'' said Tom Daschle, the former Senate majority leader from South Dakota who is now an adviser to Obama's campaign. ``McCain and rural America just never really had much chemistry together.''

Voters in many farm states have reliably backed Republicans for decades: No Democrat has carried North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, or Kansas since 1964.

Opposing Crop Subsidies

McCain may face competition this year after opposing a five- year, $289 billion farm bill that largely extends existing subsidy programs for corn, soybeans and other crops. The Arizona senator, 71, who voted against the last farm bill in 2002, blasted the measure as ``corporate welfare.''

McCain starts with a 50-41 percent lead over Obama among rural voters in 13 swing states, according to a mid-May poll commissioned by the rural strategies group. In the poll, Obama is preferred by respondents on economic issues, while McCain is considered more likely to share their values.

Obama, 46, says he supports the farm legislation. Because of campaign travel, neither McCain nor Obama voted on the measure, which was vetoed by Bush in its original form and has subsequently passed the House and Senate by veto-proof margins.

Obama's home state of Illinois ranked third among agricultural states last year, behind California and Iowa, with crop production valued at $13.8 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Arizona ranked 29th, with crops worth $1.6 billion. Decatur, Illinois, is home to Archer Daniels Midland Co., the world's largest grain processor and one of the biggest ethanol producers.

Biofuels Disagreement

Obama supported increased use of biofuels in an energy bill passed last year. McCain in May joined senators calling on the Environmental Protection Agency to relax renewable-fuels requirements.

``If the debate is about the four Fs -- food, feed, fuel and fiber -- that will help Obama with rural constituencies,'' said Daschle, who's scheduled to appear today with Kansas Republican Senator Sam Brownback at a Washington conference of rural advocacy groups. Republican-leaning states such as Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia may be competitive this year, Daschle said.

Brownback said McCain can win over rural voters even after his farm-bill stance. ``It's problematic, but it's something he can well overcome,'' Brownback said. ``You overcome it on values.''

Pork-Barrel Projects

In many rural areas, support for the farm bill equals support for agriculture, even though voters may agree with McCain's complaints about wasteful pork-barrel projects and subsidies for wealthy farmers, Schafer said. ``There are plenty of things in the farm bill that Senator McCain can point at and say, `I couldn't vote for that,''' said Schafer, who supported Bush's veto.

Farmers are benefiting from booming commodity prices: corn has soared 83 percent in the past year, soybeans are up 80 percent, and wheat has risen 47 percent. USDA projects farm income will hit $92.3 billion this year, surpassing 2007's record $88.7 billion.

Non-farmers, who make up a larger share of the rural vote, are generally less prosperous and care about jobs and access to health care, said Dee Davis, the rural strategies center president. More than 25 percent of the soldiers wounded or killed in Iraq have come from farms and small towns, according to a 2007 study by Davis's rural strategies center.

National Security

Still, Obama risks being viewed by rural voters as an elitist who doesn't understand their concerns, said Republican strategist Bill Greener. McCain's emphasis on national security and his experiences as a Vietnam prisoner-of-war will help his appeal, Schafer said.

``I don't think conservatives will switch to a liberal like Obama over McCain,'' Schafer said. Voter turnout poses a bigger risk: ``If we get a ton of new voters voting for Democrats, then North Dakota is in play,'' said Schafer.

The key for Obama, Davis said, is to show voters that he understands rural concerns about access to health care, road and bridge improvements, and respect for traditional values.

``He doesn't have to go duck-hunting'' as Bush's 2004 Democratic rival, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, did in an attempt to establish rural bona fides, Davis said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alan Bjerga in Washington at abjerga@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: June 17, 2008 08:47 EDT