Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The year 2008 will be a title for books and movies and a serious subject for historians decades from now. Yet 2009 may be more important, shaping the conclusions those scholars reach and the role the U.S. plays in the years ahead.

The new year begins with unusual promise and unusual peril. Less than a week in, here are some of the big considerations and challenges.

-- The new president’s first 100 days. In that short span 76 years ago, Franklin Delano Roosevelt engineered the reform of the banking system, created the Civilian Conservation Corps and the Tennessee Valley Authority, abandoned the gold standard and laid the framework for America’s 20th century welfare system. No president since has come close to that. It’s usually an unreasonable benchmark.

It won’t be this year. By the end of April, Barack Obama will probably have passed an economic package, historic in size and scope, and will need to have made discernible progress on global crises.

A stimulus package is essential and inevitable. Whether it achieves two important objectives -- injecting massive amounts of money into the weakening American economy quickly and making smart down payments on long-term transformational investments - - will be crucial psychologically and politically as well as economically.

Given Obama’s pledge to end business as usual in Washington, there will be a price if the legislation is laden with special-interest pork projects.

Bold Measures

-- Bold or out-of-the-box measures will be forthcoming, advisers to the 44th president promise, to demonstrate change. These will be selective and not ideologically driven, they say.

Some actions will be substantive, others symbolic, like the selection of evangelical Christian pastor Rick Warren to deliver the invocation at the inauguration. Despite complaints from some Democrats, this sends a message of outreach. “Remember that Warren has been asked to pray, not to govern,” said Timothy Shriver, the head of the Special Olympics.

The Obama national security team is highly competent. Given the situations in South Asia and the Middle East, forceful creativity is needed. There may be no better way to achieve that than by enlisting, in a special role, Richard Holbrooke, the man who brokered the Dayton Peace Accords on Bosnia. Some Obama insiders say they resent his outsized ego; more important are his intellect and skill.

On the domestic side, one model in helping forge new solutions could be a compelling new book, “The Tyranny of Dead Ideas” by Matt Miller. The theme is that unless old myths about government, business and the economy are discarded, new solutions will be elusive.

Reformer, Not Populist

The most daunting domestic challenge may well be responding to the crosscurrents of the financial meltdown; candidate Obama ran as a reformer not a populist.

Yet today many Americans -- not to mention others around the world -- want vengeance on Wall Street’s once-celebrated Masters of the Universe. As millions face the loss of a home or pension or job or the prospects of a kid going to college, they bitterly resent the failed financial fat cats walking away rich and unpunished.

Whatever the merits, enormous pressure will build for high-profile prosecutions, going way beyond Bernard Madoff. Look for Republicans to try to out-populist Obama here.

On this and the absolutely necessary re-regulation of the markets, the Obama-ites have to walk a careful line between essential reform and changing the culture, while not stifling or destroying what works.

Republicans Will Matter

-- Republicans, outnumbered, will matter in governance. The 41 or 42 Republican members of the Senate are enough to block most initiatives. And it is rare that major programs are enacted and endure without bipartisan support.

One highly likely scenario: At a critical moment, probably involving national security, John McCain could well be the president’s most important ally. Just as the maverick Arizona Republican senator led the efforts to normalize relations with Vietnam, whose government once imprisoned and tortured him, it will be natural to help the man who defeated him for the presidency. McCain often puts patriotism above politics.

Equally certain, however, is that movement conservatives, both politicians and pundits, will hammer away at Obama from the beginning. This is the way to gin up their constituencies.

-- Tensions will emerge early in the new administration. The U.S. has never seen a more successful transition; even Republicans say policy issues have been handled deftly and high-quality appointments made quickly and coherently.

Clinton, Summers

Human and political nature assures that any collection of such heavyweights will produce disagreements, some big, others petty. The early conventional wisdom is that much of the internal dissension will revolve around Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her political acolytes.

More likely is that any friction will center on top White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers. There is probably no one smarter and more capable of dealing with today’s financial crisis. Yet the former Treasury secretary and Harvard president has little regard for those less gifted, which is a huge universe. Unlike in national security, it’s not clear who will be an honest broker when divergent economic advice emerges.

This is a test of Obama’s mettle; like FDR, can he make creative tension more constructive than destructive?

-- Static analysis is always wrong. There will be unforeseen crises and mistakes. John F. Kennedy had the Bay of Pigs fiasco, Ronald Reagan was almost assassinated, and George W. Bush was hit with the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, all in their first year.

Watch Russia

Joe Biden drew political flak last fall when he said America’s adversaries would try to test a new president Obama; he was also probably right. Keep an eye on Russia, resurgent in ambition and facing serious economic hardships.

The new administration will make mistakes, even big ones - - all do. The lofty poll ratings of January won’t survive.

Obama starts in two weeks with a remarkable reservoir of goodwill at home and around most of the world. He’ll need it.

(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 4, 2009 10:23 EST