Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- House Republican Leader John Boehner of Ohio was dumped from a top post 10 years ago after his party lost seats on Election Day. He may face another fall this year if Republicans lose too much ground in his home state.

Democrats have at least a fighting chance in four Republican-held Ohio congressional districts in November, when Republicans across the U.S. are at risk of losing as many as two dozen House seats.

The outcome in Boehner's Buckeye State, where many voters say they're pessimistic about prospects for the economy, will help determine whether 2008 is just a disappointment or turns into a debacle for his party, said Stu Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.

``With four House races, it will be a state that will ultimately tell us how bad a year it might be for Republicans,'' Rothenberg said. Ohio, which has backed the winner in the past 11 presidential elections, also is ``still ground zero'' in the race between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, Rothenberg said.

To bolster his party's chances, Boehner, 58, entered Congress's August recess with plans for a national tour of 18 fundraisers to support vulnerable Republican congressional candidates. His search for campaign cash carried its own political cost: When Republicans took to the House floor last week to criticize Democrats for leaving Washington without passing an energy bill, Boehner was on a Dublin, Ohio, golf course at a fundraiser.

Job on the Line

As the House's top-ranking Republican, Boehner (pronounced BAY-ner) says he knows that if the party stumbles badly on Nov. 4, his post will be on the line when Republicans pick their leaders for the next Congress. In 1998, he was defeated for re- election as House Republican Conference chairman, the No. 4 position, after the party lost seats in the wake of its effort to toss President Bill Clinton out of office.

``What happens after Election Day depends on what happens in the election, but I'm not going to worry about it,'' Boehner said during an Aug. 7 interview in his western Ohio district.

Some Democrats predict the end of Boehner's tenure, saying he endangered his party by pushing for unified support of President George W. Bush's policies even after Republicans in 2006 lost their majorities in both the House and Senate.

`Sinking Ship'

``He's going down on a sinking ship, right to the end,'' said Maryland Representative Chris Van Hollen, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman. ``Much of the country has moved on, and yet his job here has been to be a defender of the Bush administration's final days.''

In Ohio, where the unemployment rate rose to 6.6 percent in June from 5.5 percent in November 2006, a Quinnipiac University poll in June found that 28 percent of voters said it is ``very likely'' or ``somewhat likely'' that they or a family member will leave the state within a year to find better jobs.

``Americans and Ohioans are much more likely to blame President Bush than the Democratic Congress for the lousy economy,'' said Peter Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac's polling institute. ``And by extension, Republican House members get the blame.''

Illustrating Ohio's importance in the national picture, Boehner spent the first week of Congress's August recess tending the home fires, holding fundraisers for McCain and for Republican get-out-the-vote operations in the state.

Incumbents Retiring

Republicans, who currently occupy 199 of the House's 435 seats, hold an 11-7 edge in Ohio's delegation. But incumbents Deborah Pryce and 18-term veteran Ralph Regula are retiring, opening the door for Democrats in their districts. Meanwhile, Representative Steve Chabot, who represents a Cincinnati district where more than one-quarter of the population is black, must overcome possible coattails from Obama, the first black major- party candidate. Representative Jean Schmidt, finishing her first full term, also may face tough competition.

Boehner said Republicans will win most of the competitive races in Ohio; the toughest challenge may be holding onto Regula's seat, he said. While he acknowledged Democrats will gain some seats nationally, he rejected predictions by Virginia's Representative Tom Davis, who formerly headed the Republican House campaign committee, that its losses could be as many as two dozen.

Replacing DeLay

Boehner, who's now in his ninth House term, cultivated support from Republican colleagues during five years as chairman of the Education and Workforce Committee. In early 2006, he was chosen to replace House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who stepped aside to fight charges of illegal fundraising. Boehner became the top House Republican when Speaker Dennis Hastert left the leadership after Democrats took control in 2006.

Republican losses in three special House elections last spring were early warnings that Bush's unpopularity and a slowing economy might endanger Republicans this fall. To battle back, Boehner is helping state party groups mount get-out-the-vote drives in 10 competitive House districts. So far, he has raised about $9 million for House candidates at 215 events.

Virginia's Davis, who has criticized party leaders for aligning House Republicans too closely with Bush, said Boehner's colleagues appreciate his work for Republican candidates.

``John is the only guy taking responsibility,'' Davis said. ``He's stepped up instead of passing it on.'' Still, he said, ``it's too early to tell'' whether Boehner can hold onto the leadership. ``It depends what the extent of the losses are.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Laura Litvan in Washington at llitvan@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 13, 2008 00:01 EDT