March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Democratic Party in the U.S. needs a senior figure -- George Mitchell, Al Gore, Jimmy Carter -- to avoid a political train wreck.

The disaster-in-waiting isn't the nomination of either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, or the over-hyped furor over the role of ``superdelegate'' professional politicians in selecting the party's standard-bearer.

It is over Michigan and Florida; in any closely contested presidential race, these will be two of the biggest prizes. With an inept party chairman, Howard Dean, there is a risk that the two states will be shut out of the Democratic convention, or be seated in a way that blows up the party.

This fight may seem like a dull, arcane rules dispute. Yet it might determine the next president, so stick with this for a brief bit of background.

Both the Democratic and Republican parties set dates for when the states could hold their primaries or caucuses. This was reasonable; otherwise, a billboard war of attention would have taken place, pushing the election calendar forward to 2007 and lengthening an already-too-protracted process.

Moreover, it was wisely decided that smaller states should go first or else money alone would determine who would win. Florida and Michigan could have set their primaries or caucuses anywhere from mid-February to June. Instead, they decided to violate the rules and schedule January contests in hopes of attracting more focus.

Foolish Democrats

The two parties had agreed they wouldn't play this game. The Republicans wisely devised a compromise where the two states were allowed to vote early while losing half their delegates. Foolishly, the Democrats didn't do the same.

Clinton, the only person whose name was on the ballot, won the Michigan primary with 55 percent of the vote; she also captured the Florida race, where no one campaigned or advertised.

These were shams. Evidence of that: Democratic turnout has soared everywhere this year -- running far ahead of the other party even in Republican-leaning states. In Texas, there were almost 3 million Democratic voters on March 4, twice as many as the Republicans. In Michigan and Florida, the Democratic turnout was less than that of the Republicans, because voters knew the contests didn't matter.

Before the voting season began, when Clinton thought she was the all-but-certain nominee, she vowed not to participate in the Michigan and Florida primaries and agreed that they shouldn't matter.

Change of Heart

``It's clear this election they're having isn't going to count for anything,'' she said of the Michigan contest last year in New Hampshire.

Now that she's fallen behind, she's saying these make- believe contests should be included, as if she had scored competitive victories.

The bottom line: the Democrats face three options, ranging from cataclysmic to problematic:

-- The Clinton forces can try to muscle the votes on the party's credentials committee and seat full Michigan and Florida delegations, 313 delegates in all. Even with her victories in Ohio and Texas last week, Clinton, 60, a New York senator, still faces a daunting task to catch Obama, 46, in the race for delegates; if she could pick up a net 100 votes in these two states, it might do the trick.

Obama Walkout?

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, America's highest-ranking Democrat and the chairman of the convention, has said it would be unacceptable to have delegations that didn't play by the rules be ``dispositive'' of the outcome. If that were the case, a large percentage of the Obama forces would justifiably walk out.

-- Since they didn't follow the rules, Michigan and Florida could be denied any seats at the convention, or the national party could pick its own representatives from those states. This, too, would be a disaster.

In any close general election, Florida, with 27 electoral votes, and Michigan, with 17, are among the most important battlegrounds. To stiff these crucial states would be political suicide.

-- The party can require new elections in Michigan and Florida. This is controversial and complicated; it's also the only recourse.

The Obama people would love caucuses, where they have been successful because they are better organized.

No Caucuses

Florida Senator Bill Nelson, a Clinton supporter, protests that holding caucuses would be unfair because ``maybe only 50,000 people will show up'' to participate. Florida has six times the population of Iowa, where about 240,000 Democrats voted in the January caucuses, or almost fivefold what Nelson predicts for Florida.

Of course, Iowans had the benefit of a freezing snowy night.

The Clinton camp prefers primaries for Florida and Michigan, which would be costly and where no one seems willing yet to pick up the tab.

The Democratic National Committee should foot the bill, though in another display of Dean's incompetence, it doesn't have the money because it's the party's only election committee that is faltering on fundraising.

It's time to take this away from the parochial interests of the dueling camps and the Democratic National Committee. Pelosi and other party leaders should force Dean to pick an arbiter or a small committee to resolve this matter quickly.

Mitchell, Gore

Former Senate Majority Leader Mitchell would be the ideal choice. Every blue-ribbon panel he's headed, the most recent being over drug use in baseball, has been credible and contributed much. If he's not available, other respected figures who aren't in either camp might include former Vice President Gore or former President Carter.

A deal shouldn't be that difficult: It could include some combination of caucuses and primaries, fewer delegates than slated but a higher percentage than Republicans are awarding in those two states, and the two campaigns could share the cost with the state parties and private donors.

Any new makeup election would have to be no later than June. The clock is ticking. If the Democratic Party leadership continues to dawdle, put Michigan and Florida in the John McCain column for the November election.

(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 9, 2008 10:22 EDT