By Richard Keil
July 26 (Bloomberg) -- The conflict in Iraq is limiting President George W. Bush's maneuvering room as he seeks to influence events in a Lebanon caught in a bloody cycle of violence.
U.S. efforts to broker an enduring halt to hostilities in Lebanon are complicated because its main adversaries in the region -- Iran and Syria -- are convinced that America is pinned down by troop deployments in Iraq and have taken advantage of Bush's previous reluctance to engage in Arab-Israeli peacemaking.
``Bush finds himself in a very difficult position in this current crisis because the war in Iraq has left him with very little leverage and very little political capital with many of the key players,'' said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.
At the same time, some Middle East experts said, relations with Arab governments have suffered because of Bush's strong tilt toward Israel in its showdown with Hezbollah radicals.
Even those governments that have blamed Hezbollah for triggering the clash with Israel -- including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan -- demand a cease-fire. Israel, backed by the U.S., says it won't stop fighting until it has destroyed Hezbollah's ability to hurl missiles and rockets into its cities and towns.
Anthony Cordesman, a former Pentagon intelligence expert who is now a defense policy analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the U.S. is paying the price from Baghdad to Beirut for failing to adequately respond to festering regional flare-ups.
`Under-Reacted'
``We under-reacted in the case of Iraq by not providing enough troops to secure the peace in Baghdad,'' Cordesman said. ``And we have not actively pushed for a solution to the peace process in the Middle East; we haven't given it a profile that convinces people in the region we are serious.''
The Bush administration, while recognizing that its Iraq enterprise has been controversial, rejects the criticism as ill- founded. Administration officials say that with Iraq's fragile representative government gaining a toehold and more Iraqi army divisions meeting training requirements, American military involvement may be winding down in the near future.
The officials say that Bush's decision not to enmesh himself deeply in Israeli-Palestinian peace talks or name a special Middle East envoy was not dictated by Iraq. They say it was a conscious policy choice made by a president who felt the time was not ripe for a large-scale U.S. initiative.
James Carafano, a military historian at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, said that Bush has made a ``principled'' decision not to negotiate with governments or organizations he believes are not honest brokers.
``This administration has said, `We don't like the world the way it is,' and has sought to change it by refusing to engage,'' Carafano said.
Pressure Building
That hasn't stopped the pressure from building on the administration. Arab regimes suspicious of Hezbollah still want Bush to pressure Israel into halting military operations. And Lebanese officials have reacted skeptically to a U.S.-backed plan for a large multinational peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, a contingent that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said would bolster the pro-democracy government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and weaken Hezbollah.
That cool reaction underscores just how difficult Rice's job will be as she shuttles between capitals in an attempt to end the hostilities.
U.S. diplomatic efforts in the Middle East suffered a pair of setbacks in January. First, then-Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a strong ally, was incapacitated by a stroke. Then the radical group Hamas won a ruling majority in Palestinian elections, leaving the U.S. with the option of withdrawing from the negotiating table or bargaining with a faction that denounces Israel's right to exist and that Bush has labeled a terrorist organization.
U.S. and Iraq
The fighting in Lebanon also adds complexities to an already tangled U.S-Iraq relationship. While Bush has said that Israel has a right to defend itself against attacks, anti-Israel sentiment in Iraq runs high. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has criticized Israeli air strikes and shelling against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon.
Bush, after meeting with Maliki at the White House yesterday, said that he and the Iraqi leader ``had a frank exchange of views on the situation.''
Maliki said he ``emphasized the importance of an immediate cease-fire'' in Lebanon. ``I reaffirmed the importance of approaching every issue through peaceful and diplomatic means,'' he said during a joint news conference with Bush.
Kupchan, the Council on Foreign Relations expert, said that Maliki's political situation at home is part of the equation.
Pressures on Maliki
``He is now head of a government that is predominantly Shiite, with strong ties to Iran, and it would be quite awkward for him to be supportive of Israel or take a position on the Palestinian-Israeli situation that would make him seem like a puppet of the United States,'' Kupchan said.
Bush's Democratic opponents are laboring to link his Iraq policy to the Lebanon conflict. Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada said the administration's ``mismanagement'' of the Iraq war had ``emboldened'' Hezbollah and its Syrian and Iranian backers.
``They're taking advantage of our damaged reputation in the world and the fact that Iraq has tied our hands,'' Reid said July 24 on the Senate floor.
Judith Kipper, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said an effective peace plan must include a withdrawal of Hezbollah from southern Lebanon and the insertion of NATO soldiers to keep the peace. ``NATO is the only force with the capacity and training to find the missiles,'' she said.
Hezbollah, founded in 1982, has claimed credit or been linked to scores of attacks on Israelis and Americans, including rocket attacks on Israeli towns, the 1983 bombing that killed 241 U.S. and 58 French soldiers in Beirut and the 1994 attack that killed 95 at a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.
Kipper and others contend that the U.S. must also find ways to deter Iran and Syria, sponsors of the Hezbollah and Hamas military wings. ``They both need to be convinced that the days of nation-states using surrogates to wage war are over,'' Kipper said. ``There has to be a carrot-and-stick approach.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Richard Keil at dkeil@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 26, 2006 00:01 EDT
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